World Championship, Game 8: An Open Sicilian Results in Another Draw

At last we were treated to an Open Sicilian, as Fabiano Caruana finally put the Rossolimo on the shelf and met Magnus Carlsen's 2...Nc6 Sicilian with 3.d4. As most commentators (myself included) expected, Carlsen went for a Sveshnikov Sicilian, and (not necessarily as expected) Caruana went for the secondary line with 7.Nd5.

Of course Carlsen was prepared for this line, but Caruana's preparation went deeper, and he didn't have a real think until move 20. He wound up with a serious advantage, too, until the unnecessary prophylactic move 24.h3 gave Carlsen the tempo he needed to get his counterplay going. White more or less had to force a queen trade, and his advantage after this was too small to give him any serious hopes of winning. With just rooks and opposite-colored bishops remaining, Caruana offered a draw with his 38th move, and it was accepted.

Only four games remain, and we'll see game 9 on Wednesday, as tomorrow (Tuesday) is a rest day. Here's game 8, with brief notes.

Stockfish Wins Chess.Com Computer Championship (Blitz)

Stockfish won easily, with 178/300; none of the other three engines reached an even score. Komodo scored 144.5, Lc0 139.5, and Houdini finished fourth of four in the final stage of Chess.com's Computer Chess Championship, blitz edition. Stockfish only lost eight games of 300 while winning a chessically appropriate 64 - very impressive!

The Pop Quiz/Unexpected Hanging Paradox, Chess Edition

I've always enjoyed puzzling through philosophical paradoxes, and one that I would sometimes mention to students was the so-called pop quiz paradox. The way it works is this: the teacher tells his students that there will be a pop quiz next week, where a pop quiz is defined as one whose specific date cannot be predicted. (The unexpected hanging paradox is the same thing, except that it's a prisoner's being hanged that will be the unpleasant, unpredictable surprise.) It might come on Monday, it might come on Friday, or any day in between. It will happen, it won't be announced beforehand, and it can't be predicted with certainty beforehand.

But with this definition a problematic result ensues. Suppose, the students reason in advance, that it hasn't happened after next Thursday's class. Then it would have to be on Friday, but since Friday is impossible (it would be predictable with certainty) it wouldn't be a pop quiz. (We're assuming here and throughout that both the teacher and the students are fully rational, and are aware that the other partie(s) are fully rational as well.) Therefore, the students know on Wednesday that since it can't happen on Friday, it would have to happen on Thursday. But if it has to happen on Thursday, then once again it's not a pop quiz. And since this reasoning can be repeated, it can't be on Wednesday, Tuesday, or Monday either. In fact, one could have an infinite number of days, and all can be ruled out one by one. This seems nuts, however - obviously if a teacher tells the students that there will be a pop quiz some time during the semester or the school year, it's clear that the students can be surprised, even if the reasoning purports to show that a pop quiz is impossible. So something is going wrong somewhere.

Anyhow, I was thinking about Fabiano Caruana's chances to win the match during the classical portion, and wondering when exactly he should "panic" about the possibility of the rapid (and possibly blitz) playoff. (I'm assuming he's a relatively heavy underdog in the rapid and a serious underdog in the blitz, if it comes to that. And by "panic" I mean that he should take some extra - but not suicidal - risks to increase the possibility of a decisive classical game.) Certainly by game 12 it will be time to take some extra risks, but what about before that?

Now, let's suppose that Magnus Carlsen will know when Caruana is in a panic situation, and that this knowledge can be used to give his chances a serious extra boost. (This may not be true, but let's suppose it is for the sake of the thought experiment.) If that's correct, then it seems that we'll have another version of the pop quiz paradox. Caruana won't want to wait until game 12 to panic, because then Carlsen will know and will have an extra edge. But then after game 10 Carlsen will know that Caruana can't wait until game 12, and must therefore panic in game 11. But then that's bad for Caruana as well...and so on, all the way back to game 1. So how do we resolve this? And speaking outside the bounds of the paradox, when should Caruana panic (in the sense above) if the match is tied?

Women's World Championship: Finals, Day 1

Game 1 of the Women's (knockout) World Championship finished in a draw. Most of the way it was Ju Wenjun with the white pieces who had the upper hand, but there was a moment - moves 22 and 23 - where Kateryna Lagno had a chance to turn the tables. It was an interesting game in any case, worth having a look at if you have some time.

World Championship, Game 7: Caruana Comfortably Draws with Black

Seven down, five to go. (There's probably no truth to the rumor that fans are abandoning the match to watch correspondence chess tournaments, where only 90% of the games finish in a draw.) Magnus Carlsen had the white pieces again and for the fourth time in four tries, obtained no advantage whatsoever. (Not that Fabiano Caruana has done that much better, but he did manage to get a decent opening advantage with White in game 3.)

Carlsen played 1.d4, and play followed game 2 until Carlsen varied with 10.Nd2, which was met by the very unusual 10...Qd8. Maybe 12.Rd1 or 12.0-0-0 would have put Caruana's idea to the test, but Carlsen played the safe 12.Be2. Maybe Carlsen's favorite "historical" player (himself, naturally, 3-4 years ago) might have ground out a plus, but the 2018 edition isn't as effective or today's players defend better against him (or both), and Blacck wasn't really put to the test. Perhaps Carlsen got the tiniest whiff of hope after Caruana's 24th-26th moves let White play for a good knight vs. semi-bad bishop ending, but Caruana's good defensive idea on moves 29 and 30 allowed him to neutralize Carlsen's hopes. After thinking a while just before the time control, Carlsen allowed a repetition and they called it a game after White's 40th move.

It's 3.5-3.5 with five classical games left. Caruana has looked slightly more impressive so far, but if he doesn't win a classical game he's a clear underdog in a rapid playoff and a very big underdog in blitz. Maybe the pressure of an impending playoff isn't overwhelming yet, but it's building.

Here's today's game, with my brief notes.

Notre Dame 36, Syracuse 3

And it wasn't even as close as the extremely lopsided score would suggest, plus Syracuse's one field goal came with ten seconds left, with their first-stringers working hard to score against Notre Dame's benchwarmers, some cheerleaders and a couple of senior citizens in the audience. (The bit about the cheerleaders and senior citizens might have been made up, but the rest is true.) Syracuse had looked very impressive going into this game, averaging 44 points a game and having one of the best ratios of turnovers exploited to turnovers committed in all of college football, but they were completely manhandled by Notre Dame today. Syracuse was #12, and maybe rightly so, but Notre Dame showed that there's a huge gap between #3 and #12.

Record so far: 11-0.

Next victim: USC.

Tune time!

Women's World Championship: Lagno Defeats M. Muzychuk in Semi Tiebreaks; Will Play Ju Wenjun in the Finals

And then there were two. Kateryna Lagno defeated Mariya Muzychuk 2-0 in their rapid playoff, and will face Jun Wenjun in a best-of-four game final to (re-)determine the 2018 Women's World Championship. Tomorrow (Sunday) the players get their first and only scheduled free day of the event, and then the final begins on Monday.

In the first game Lagno had White and failed to achieve anything against Muzychuk's favorite, the Open Ruy, and was even in danger of being worse. Eventually she escaped, and went on to win a nice long opposite-colored bishop ending to open the scoring. Game 2 was a very different story, except for the winner. It started slowly in a 4.d3 Anti-Berlin, but Black whipped up a savage kingside attack, winning loads of material while sending White's king out for a death march. It was a very impressive and altogether one-sided victory for Lagno.

Lagno will now have a chance to win her first women's world championship title, while Ju Wenjun will try to defend her status as the current women's champion. The rating difference between the two is pretty small, and while I'd make Ju the favorite due to her experience and her already being a world champion, they're both playing very well and Lagno is at least playing in her home country of Russia.

World Championship, Update for Game 6: An Annotated Version

A bit late, but here's a comparatively lightly-annotated look at game 6 of the match. Enjoy!

Notre Dame to Squeeze the Orangemen

This one’s a biggie, as #3 Notre Dame takes on #12 Syracuse, starting presently. The festivities are televised on NBC.

Go Irish!

World Championship, Game 6: A Long, Hard-Fought Draw Keeps the Match Tied at the Halfway Point

Six games, six draws, but this was a good one. Magnus Carlsen had White and decided to test Fabiano Caruana in the Videogate opening, the Petroff. Carlsen chose a really obscure line and even here couldn't surprise Caruana. A very dull quiet queenless middlegame ensued with the champion enjoying a token plus but with a draw the likeliest result. The expectation was that he would grind and grind, but that Caruana would be a favorite to hold the draw.

Something like that happened...but it was the other way around! Caruana outplayed the champion, outshining him in his own territory. Once he started to get into trouble he played better, and his piece sac on move 44 was a brave, deep defensive idea. It was correct, but not an automatic draw by any stretch of the imagination. For a long time Carlsen defended correctly, but Caruana's persistence finally induced an error on move 67. Unfortunately for the challenger, the endgame was at times a little too subtle for both players, not just Carlsen, and on move 68 he missed his chance. Caruana tried a little longer, but his final plan was harmless and the game was agreed drawn after 80 moves.

This was an excellent fight, worthy of a world championship match. Hopefully the second half of the match will see more games like this one. The players are off tomorrow, and game 7, with Carlsen again having White will take place on Sunday. As for the game and my notes, the latter will take a while, so for now, here's the game without any comments. Look for an update later on.