Anand-Topalov: We Predict
...that the winner's identity will be known by May 13 at the latest. Before offering my prediction, let me offer some general comments and summarize other predictions I've seen.
First, I think the first player to win a game will almost definitely be the winner of the match, especially if they "consolidate" the victory (i.e. not lose the advantage in the next game). I think Topalov is more resilient than Anand - or perhaps I should say that Anand is less resilient than Topalov. If Anand falls behind, I'm not sure how he'll do in a situation where he needs to claw his way back. On the other hand, I believe that Anand's best chess is better than Topalov's, so if Anand starts well and gets his confidence going, I think it'll be like the Anand-Kramnik match, where Topalov will have to fight to avoid getting flattened.
Second, Anand generally seems to be the favorite, not only in terms of rooting interest but also in people's predictions. Only the Carlsen-Aronian-Gelfand-Ivanchuk group seemed to stick resolutely to a 50-50 evaluation. There's often wisdom in numbers, but these four know them about as well as anyone and it would be hard to find anyone better suited to judge than they are.
Third, obviously, any predictions based on their chess are in danger of incompleteness, given the possibility of a Son of Toiletgate protest. If that kind of nonsense happens again, FIDE President Kirsan Iljumzhinov should punish the miscreants severely. How it will effect the match is something I don't know, and for now let's be optimistic and assume it's not a real possibility.
So it's time to predict. As I said, I think the first winner will probably win the match - especially if it's Anand - and I'll add a second conditional prediction as well: if Anand plays the Queen's Indian and holds with it, I'm very optimistic about his chances. I really don't see Topalov outplaying Anand in games where he gets nothing from the opening. Also, while Topalov is +1 in their slow time control games, Anand has a big advantage against him in faster time controls (as he does against almost everyone). So 6-6 almost definitely means Anand wins. Overall, I think Anand has the bigger game, so unless there are shenanigans I'm going with Anand to win 6.5-4.5.
Reader Comments (7)
I haven't kept count but hasn't the most common prediction been for Topalov. The rationale being that anand and topalov are evenly matched but it being in Bulgaria makes Topalov the favorite.
If you look at Anands words at the press conference - "The main thing I came here for is to play chess. Mr. Makropoulos described very well the situation. I want to thank FIDE for the understanding and I hope the chess fans will see a good match"
By saying it will be a good match, he's actually threatening Topalov to be ready for a really good fight. I think Anand is sufficiently motivated for this match, which can only mean one thing - Anand wins by force. He is after all the best player after Kaspy in modern chess.
@Ranajeet: While I hope you (and Dennis) are right, I wouldn't make too much of Anand's words of the press conference. Imagine he wasn't / isn't "ready for a really good fight" and "sufficiently motivated", what would he say then? Would he really give Topalov a hint??
Obviously I also have a 'rooting interest'. BTW there is some discussion on other blogs about the (cor)relation between rooting interest and predictions by amateurs, also because none of the polls I saw include the option "dunno, too close to call". So those who hesitate or cannot make up their mind couldn't even vote?
Finally: If Anand _really_ plays the Queen's Indian and holds with it, it would be an interesting parallel to the Topalov-Kamsky match. Before that match, many people thought that Kamsky wouldn't dare to play the Grunfeld and/or that it would be foolish, almost suicidal to do so (given Topalov's record against others). Well, Kamsky played the Grunfeld, was well-prepared and got equality or even a bit more out of the opening. The match was decided not in the opening, but in time-trouble - and the objective difference in playing strength may have played a role. Neither time trouble nor a sizeable ELO gap are an issue now.
I think Topalov was quite confident against Kamsky and perhaps didn't bring his A-game. Also did anyone read about Kamsky's prep to avoid eavesdropping - playing music continually, holding meetings in the bathroom with the water running. I'm not surprised that he wasn't well rested - that might have also led to the timetrouble problems.
Hey, you got your maths wrong. 6.5 - 4.5 ? It should be 7 - 5 right? or Do you mean 6.5 - 5.5!!
Jack: No, my math is fine. Once a player has more than six points, the match ends.
Brian: Every poll I've seen has favored Anand, including the one on this site.
I think Brian referred to the GM assessments on Chessvibes - on balance saying that chances should be even, but there may be a home advantage for Topalov.