Candidates News
Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 2:15PM There are several very interesting pieces of information about the 2011 Candidates matches to report here.
(1) Pairings. This is the most interesting bit, of course, and here they are:
Veselin Topalov - Gata Kamsky (Hmm, where have we seen this before?)
Magnus Carlsen - Teimour Radjabov
Vladimir Kramnik - Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
Levon Aronian - Boris Gelfand
(2) Location. Note that Aronian is playing, which leads to this: in what is at least in part a concession to Aronian's unwillingness to play in Azerbaijan (the originally intended location was Baku), the event is now scheduled for Kazan, Russia. And this in turn leads to...
(3) Topalov's Protest. Based on his experience against Kramnik in Elista, where he suffered by receiving a free point and destroying Kramnik's equilibrium by accusing the latter of cheating, Topalov has pronounced himself unwilling to play against a Russian (i.e. Kramnik, the only Russian in the event) in Russia. What arrangement, if any, will be made for this is unclear, but in the unlikely event that no concession is made and Topalov cuts his nose to spite his face, he will be replaced by Alexander Grischuk. (Note: though I find the behavior of Topalov (and Danailov) extremely unpleasant, I do hope that if he and Kramnik meet in a final match, it occurs in a neutral site. It would be even better, however, if he simply lost to Kamsky in the first round.)
More info here.
Reader Comments (10)
"(Note: though I find the behavior of Topalov (and Danailov) extremely unpleasant, I do hope that if he and Kramnik meet in a final match, it occurs in a neutral site. It would be even better, however, if he simply lost to Kamsky in the first round.)"
I couldn't agree more.
Yeah, too bad Kamsky isn't in the same class as Topalov. I think Mamedyarov has better chances of getting past Kramnik. The only really realistic upset is Gelfand over Aronian, though. Unlikely, but more realistic than the others, as Aronian can be strangely off some days.
Gelfand's recent score against Aronian (source: statistics on FIDE rating pages) is +4=6-4 - so even calling Gelfand's victory an upset would be a (fairly common) underestimation of Gelfand's strength? The rating gap between them is currently 44 points, but it was a marginally significant 20 points as recently as January 2010.
I agree with Dennis that a possible final Kramnik-Topalov should preferably be held at a neutral location, maybe it could be moved back to Baku? But certainly not (again) Sofia ..... .
Before that, we will most likely see a semifinal Kramnik-Carlsen. Based on considerations given above - recent head-to-head score - this match also doesn't have a favorite!?
Agree on Kamsky - Topalov.
O/T, but Dennis, did you see this?
He seems unhappy.
It would be remarkably stupid of him to refuse to play because the matches are in Russia. Chances to compete for a world championship are too rare to be frivolously squandered. But dumber things have happened. Remember when Ruslan Ponomariov had a chance to play a match against Garry Kasparov, and let it go because his handlers held out for concessions that never came?
Of course, even on fairness grounds, he has no serious basis for complaint. In the first place, as Dennis notes, last time he actually got a free (unearned) win out of playing in Russia. And secondly, he certainly didn't mind playing a W.C. match in Bulgaria that subjected Anand to the same purported disadvantage he is now complaining of. I don't see why he should get a neutral site for playing against Kramnik, when Anand didn't get that.
hylen: Yep, saw it.
Marc: In case you didn't know, guess who Ponomariov's manager was. Danailov! Wrt your last statement, there is one reason: there were no other satisfactory bids for Anand to choose from. In any case, Anand didn't object, so it's a non-issue, but if he had it would have been appropriate for the parties to push harder for other bids.
Danailov's latest take on the issue (translated from Russian into English) is here:
http://www.chessintranslation.com/2010/07/the-russian-player-we-played-a-match-against-in-2006-in-elista-doesnt-exist-for-us/
Among other things, he says "An international federation with self respect should have opened up bidding for running the Candidates Matches in another city. Sofia, by the way, could have offered a million dollars. Where's the problem?" Well, Sofia would certainly be unacceptable for a "non-existing Russian player" ... so there would be a problem.
Odds for discussion:
Topalov-Kamsky: 85%-15% (Roughly 7 to 1)
Carlsen-Radjabov: 60%-40% (Not even 2 to 1)
Kramnik-Mamedyarov: 75%-25% (4 to 1)
Aronian-Gelfand: (60%-40%) (Not even 2 to 1).
Of course, the pairings all set one of the big 5 against one of the not-big-5. Carlsen and Aronian at least are up against genuine contenders, however, since Gelfand is experienced in the elite and Radjabov is a legit Linares guy and still young enough to be reliably improving every year. Mamedyarov has short-drawn his way through a few supertournaments since he dummied up a rating, but never really impressed, and Kamsky doesn't remotely belong in this company.
I'd love to see Shirov, Ivanchuk, Ponomariov, and Grischuk in this sort of format; I think they would all crush Kamsky almost as convincingly as Topalov will. Mamedyarov has the ELO credential, but his performance against the elite has been pretty weak overall.
@Schroedinger: Your remarks about Kamsky and Mamedyarov are both unkind and unjust. Focusing on Kamsky, I think we can agree without much ado that he will be a clear underdog against Topalov, but to say that he "doesn't remotely belong in this company" strikes me as excessive, perhaps even absurd. Kamsky has been a Candidates finalist three times, once making it to a title match and the other two times losing in hard fought battles. (His 2009 loss to Topalov was no blowout - he was one good move away from tying the match at 2.5 apiece. I don't mean that he was unlucky, but the match was no massacre.) He has beaten both Anand and Kramnik in matches; Topalov has beaten neither. He won the 2007 World Cup, while Topalov never managed to win in a FIDE K.O. World Championship. (Along the way Kamsky beat Svidler, Ponomariov, Carlsen and Shirov.)
If Kamsky is well-prepared (as he was a the World Cup, thanks to Sutovsky), the match can be very competitive.
Your odds calculations are a little bit off. For example 75-25 is exactly 3 to 1, not 4 to 1. A common mistake when converting percentages to X to 1 odds is that they divide the underdogs chances by 100 instead of the favorites odds. So that's how you got to 4 to 1, because that is 100/25. But Kramnik's odds are 75 so you divide that by Mamedyarov's odds (25), and get 3 to 1.
So your chart should look more like this.
Topalov-Kamsky: 85%-15% (Roughly 6 to 1)
Carlsen-Radjabov: 60%-40% (3 to 2)
Kramnik-Mamedyarov: 75%-25% (3 to 1)
Aronian-Gelfand: (60%-40%) (3 to 2).
Hope this helps!