The Candidates Starts Tomorrow!
With the 2014 Candidates' tournament starting in just a few hours in balmy Khanty-Mansyisk, Russia, it's time to spring into action on the blog!
Here are the first round pairings:
- Dmitry Andreikin - Vladimir Kramnik
- Sergey Karjakin - Peter Svidler
- Shakhriyar Mamedyarov - Veselin Topalov
- Viswanathan Anand - Levon Aronian
(Full pairings here.)
Two matchups strike me as especially interesting, namely Andreikin-Kramnik and Anand-Aronian. This is in part because Aronian and Kramnik are the favorites by rating and general acclaim, but not just for that reason. For Kramnik, Andreikin has proved an especially difficult opponent. He defeated him 2.5-1.5 in the finale of last year's World Cup, but he went 0-3 in their remaining games, including their most recent game from the Russian Championship. Andreikin is the lowest-rated player in the event, but that doesn't mean he can't do any damage.
Anand-Aronian is even more intriguing. In general, Aronian has done very well against Anand, but Anand has won some nice games as well. Last year's brilliancy in Wijk aan Zee was most impressive, and in the 2007 World Championship in Mexico City Aronian lost an early game to Anand that took some of the wind out of his sails while helping propel Anand towards eventual victory. Anand's results have not been very good (by his standards) for a long time, but if he can get his confidence up with an early win over a major rival he could become a serious contender.
What time will it start? According to TWIC the rounds start at 3 p.m. local time, 9 a.m. UK time and 4 a.m. ET. That makes sense, but for some reason the event's website is telling me the broadcast will begin in 11 and a half hours, which would be 9 a.m. ET. As someone who lives in that time zone I'd find that delightful if true, but it's ever-so-slightly unlikely that the players would commence play at 8 p.m. their time.
Finally, let's take another shot at predictions. I'm going with Aronian, with the one concern being his seeming tendency to underperform in late rounds and very high-pressure situations. If he can maintain even a stable level in those clutch situations I think he'll be the winner. If not, then I think Kramnik will have the best chance to win and face Carlsen.
In the second tier, I think Topalov and Anand can have chances, but only if they get off to good starts. If their starts are mediocre or poor, then I don't believe they'll contend. Svidler generally performs very well in major events, and with a bit of luck he might make a run here as well. The Karjakin who won the Norway super-tournament last year could have a shot as well, but the Karjakin of the second half of 2013 probably wouldn't.
As for Mamedyarov and Andreikin, I don't see either contending. Like Ivanchuk last year, however, they may turn out to be spoilers. We'll find out soon! Meanwhile, readers, predict away.
Reader Comments (12)
GM Alex Yermolinsky gave the most interesting, if not the best analysis of the chances of the different candidates.
Regarding Anand, if he wins against Aronian in round 1, Anand's stock to win the Candidate's Tournament goes up slightly and Aronian's chance goes down.
If Anand draws Aronian in round, one he might draw the rest of his games or lose two or three in order to show us that he should have let Caruana play. ;)
If Anand loses with the White pieces against Aronian, then his blood is in the water and the sharks will go into a feeding frenzy on him. Then it is likely that Anand will finish with a minus one to minus three score given his predilection to play substandard chess (for a world champion and now former world champion) in tournaments for a few years.
The focus is on Anand because Caruana should be playing instead of Anand and perhaps Nakamura should be playing instead of Svidler.
Some of what I wrote is good natured humor laced with a heavy dose of reality. I hope it stimulates some humorous yet considered replies.
We'll know in just a few hours. The bell is soon to ring for Round 1 of the 2014 Candidates Tournament!
From Afghanistan with love,
Trill
I have only heard 30 minutes and I already wish Peter Heine Nielsen could be
convinced to do more commenting of top-level chess. Extremely knowledgeable,
no vague and repeated "I don't like this move" of top-ten players,
no preponderance to content-empty fillers (as opposed to, say, Susan "Wow" Polgar and
Lawrence "Incredible" Trent).
[DM: There are commentators I like better than others (Svidler is probably my favorite among the usual suspects, but he has an even better job for the next several weeks), but I can probably abide anyone as long as they don't sing "Piano Man". A little more seriously: I think there are multiple sites offering commentary: there's the tournament site, ICC, Playchess and doubtless others. And maybe best of all is to try to figure things out for oneself during the games, and only checking in with commentary afterwards.]
Total shock if Anand wins. Really don't think he wants to face Carlsen across the board again with the whole (chess) world watching.
He wants a respectable performance, and he'll probably get that. My slightly dark horse pick is Karjakin. He has the talent and the motivation. it won't get any easier next cycle when two or three of the old hands will likely be replaced by younger, hungrier guns.
Anand anesthesizes Aronian and leads the 2014 Candidates!
Anand is elated, Kramnik is happy, and Aronian is under pressure from the start.
If Aronian bounces back to win the tournament, he is a deserving challenger to Carlsen. If Anand holds on, or even better increases his lead to win the tournament, we could see the genesis of Anand version 2.3!
Can someone please stop this madness with Caruana and Nakamura? They were given a chance to qualify and they didn't. As simple as that.
Total shock? I wasn't shocked, but confess to being (pleasantly) surprised. An interesting start to the tournament!
First round over and only Anand won!!!! That too by outplaying the opponent in a slow game. I guess all the above comments go for a toss now?
My prediction is late (the first round has already happened), but the new information only changes my prediction slightly. I'm picking Kramnik to win, Aronian to place and Svidler to show. Oddly enough, I think that Aronian is MORE likely to win now after losing to Anand today: it will take some of the pressure off of him, at least for a little while. Also, I predict that Svidler will finish no higher than second, and no lower than a tie for third.
Karjakin is my dark horse. As others have said, still young and improving, and capable of winning at this level.
I think Anand and Topalov are too far past their primes, and I don't give Andreikin or Mamedyarov and real chances of winning, either.
Ultimately, I'm hoping this tournament isn't a let down from last year's tournament, which was the best tournament of my lifetime.
And the winner is ... Anand. Shock the hell out of me, and Aronian :)
Anand won!
To me it doesn't really matter who wins the Candidates. I do not see anyone in the Candidates beating Carlsen in match play.
I am not into prediction and I don't take any sides. I am looking forward to studying all the games and learning something from them. I hope these events keep taking place at a regular level and that I'm able to enjoy and appreciate the beauty of chess. There were only eight spots here and eight decent players have made it through. Only three return from the last tournament. Anand replaces Carlsen while the other four are fresh faces but they have been playing the game and are just as likely to impress as the ones we saw in London.