Sinquefield Cup, Round 8: Three Lead Entering the Last Round; Two More Half a Point Behind UPDATED: With Games
There will be a playoff on Saturday in case of a tie for first after tomorrow's (Friday's) round, and that playoff might be a long one. Three players are currently tied for first, and it's possible that it will be a four-way tie after the last round. We'll get to this below, but for now, let's summarize today's round.
Four of the five games were drawn, but there was tension in all of those games, including the three that finished in 32 moves or less. Levon Aronian came into the round as a co-leader, and his 19-move draw with Peter Svidler was full of content. The pawn structure that arose after 14 moves was apparently unique in the history of chess (at least as represented by the standard databases), and the position was highly imbalanced and complex. It was Svidler who had the better chances in the end, but the move that would maintain the advantage was one he dismissed too quickly. Given the other two options available to him, he chose the right one and repeated moves.
Viswanathan Anand and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave were the other two co-leaders, and they played each other in tihs round. Anand enjoyed a small space and development advantage, which transformed itself into the advantage of the bishop pair. It was still a very small edge, and maintaining it would require exceptional accuracy. Anand kept a small initiative, but couldn't consolidate his pluses, and the result was a fairly speedy draw.
If Magnus Carlsen could defeat Ian Nepomniachtchi with the black pieces, he'd make it a four-way tie for first. Nepo hasn't had a great tournament, but he played well in this game to seize the advantage. It almost became a serious advantage, but Carlsen's actively put out the fire before it became serious.
Nepomniachtchi hasn't had a great tournament, but Wesley So's has been even worse. Today he lost his fourth game in the tournament, getting ground down by Sergey Karjakin in a long game. Karjakin's edge grew promising right at the end of the time control, and from there So's position degenerated on almost every move until White (Karjakin) found himself with a winning position at move 47. Karjakin's technique wasn't perfect, but it was good enough to bring home the point. He is now tied with Carlsen, half a point behind the leading troika.
Finally, Fabiano Caruana could also have been in the group half a point out of first, if he had seized a big opportunity given him by Hikaru Nakamura right after the time control. Nakamura played very well for most of the game, and had been better from the early middlegame on. Shortly before the time control, however, he started to go astray, and after Caruana's 41st move he had a usable plus. After Nakamura's 41st move that plus wasn't merely usable; it was (probably) decisive. Unfortunately for Caruana, he had a choice between two good-looking options, and he chose the one that overlooked Nakamura's threat. Fortunately for Caruana the price was that he had to allow perpetual check; it wasn't a losing error. Nevertheless, the draw cost him in the ratings race for the two Candidates' spots and put him out of the running for first place in the Sinquefield Cup.
Here are the pairings for the final round:
- Carlsen (4.5) - Aronian (5)
- Vachier-Lagrave (5) - Nepomniachtchi (3)
- So (2.5) - Anand (5)
- Nakamura (3) - Karjakin (4.5)
- Svidler (3.5) - Caruana (4)
If all the five-pointers draw (or if MVL and Anand both draw while Carlsen wins) they'll all finish with 5.5 points and tied for first, where they could be caught by Karjakin. Obviously the five-pointers want to win, and MVL and Anand both have excellent chances to do so, at least on paper, against opponents who have had a hard time in St. Louis. Carlsen still has a chance to emerge as the tournament winner, and considering the 1.5 points he left on the table in his games MVL and Nakamura - in both cases seeing the winning moves - it wouldn't be a violation of any sort of "higher justice" if he pulled it out.
UPDATE: Here are the games, with my (mostly brief) comments.
Reader Comments (1)
Regarding long playoffs: As far as I understand the regulations, the playoff is between 2 players at most, even in case of a four way tie. If the 2 players can't be determined by number of wins and results amongst all tied players, there won't be a playoff at all.
Therefore Aronian might win the tournament without playoff if Aronian, Anand and MVL win or if Aronian, Anand, MVL draw and Karjakin doesn't win (if Karjakin wins in this case, there will be a playoff between him an Aronian).
If Carlsen wins, Karjakin win and MVL, Anand don't win. The playoff will be a new edition of last year's WCC match.
If Carlsen wins, Anand, MVL draw and Karjakin doesn't win, Carlsen will face MVL in playoff.
I might be wrong though.