FIDE Alters the Qualification Scheme for the 2020 Candidates; Adds a Swiss Event **UPDATED**
Friday, January 11, 2019 at 11:11PM
Dennis Monokroussos in 2020 Candidates

Seven-eighths of the qualification procedure remains in place for the next Candidates event, which will take place in 2020. Fabiano Caruana is still qualified as the loser of the last World Championship match, and as far as we know there will be two World Cup qualifiers, two Grand Prix qualifiers, a wildcard selected by the organizer(s) of the Candidates event, and one qualifier by rating.

That's one, as in only one. Previously two players qualified that way, but now one of those spots will go to the winner of a 11-round Swiss system event to be held later this year, open to the top 100 players by rating. In the event of a tie for first there will not be a playoff; instead, tiebreaks will be used starting with TPR. (In general, this is one of the fairer tiebreak methods - but in a field that's likely to be as balanced by rating as this one, the difference is going to be pretty random. If player A's TPR is just a couple of rating points different, that's much more noise than signal. I think head-to-head should come first, but why not have a playoff?)

Looking at some of the regulations listed here, a big question comes to mind. There are to be 100 players, but the prizes for the event only run through 30th place. The tournament lasts for 15 days, which is a pretty long time. At the start of the article just linked to the event is described as an "all-expenses paid" event, but when they list some of the regulations it says this: "All accommodation costs and a travel allowance will be paid by the players."

That doesn't sound like "all-expenses paid" to me, and so if I'm ranked 50th or below I've got to wonder if it's worth my while.

[DM: **UPDATE** Oliver notes in the comments that there was an error in the Chess24 piece I cited, due to haste. Rather than "All accommodation costs and a travel allowance will be paid by the players" (emphasis added), it should have been "...will be paid for the players" (again, emphasis added). That makes a huge difference! It may not cover all expenses (seconds, opportunity costs), but it's still a significant help to the players.]

My odds of winning are very low - maybe 1/100 if I'm 50th, far less the closer I am to number 100. Meanwhile, I'm paying for the trip, at least 15 days' accommodations (more, because of the need to acclimatize), and the cost of one or more seconds. There's also opportunity costs: I might have to miss out on an event where I'm likely to win money to participate in this tournament. It's all well and good for the starry-eyed dreamers with money to burn, or for those near the super-elite level who want to get in some games with players they'd never normally get to play. But I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of mid-to-upper 2600s decide that it's a bad deal and skip it altogether.

Anyway, it will be entertaining for us, even if it doesn't make much sense as a way to find the best Candidates. Keep the bread and circuses coming, FIDE!

Article originally appeared on The Chess Mind (http://www.thechessmind.net/).
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