After a disappointing loss to Fabiano Caruana in round 9, Alireza Firouzja showed impressive resilience by bouncing back with a win in round 10 of the FIDE Grand Swiss. By defeating David Howell, who entered the round sharing the lead with Firouzja and Caruana, he retook the sole lead, as Caruana only drew (with Black) against Maxime Vachier-Lagrave. Meanwhile, no player who entered the round only half a point back managed to win his game, with one exception: Grigoriy Oparin. By defeating the favored Nikita Vitiugov - and with Black - he has put himself in a great position to take one of the two qualifying spots for next year's Candidates. His fate is in his hands, as he'll have White against Firouzja in the last round. He almost certainly needs a win, as Caruana will have the white pieces against Alexandr Predke, and he will be a heavy favorite.
We'll get back into this in a moment, but first a summary of some of the action in round 10. Firouzja's win over Howell was of great competitive significance, obviously, but it was a fine game in its own right. It wasn't a battle of nerves where the player who made the next-to-last mistake survived and won, but a quality victory by the young superstar.
With a win over MVL, Caruana would have kept the pace, but this was never going to be easy, especially with the black pieces. He did a solid, professional job, held the draw, and put himself in an excellent position to qualify for a Candidates spot.
Oparin's win was deserved, and although his tournament standing is a shock his victory over Vitiugov was no fluke. Vitiugov accepted a poor structure in return for attacking chances, and on this occasion the defense was better than the attack. Oparin thereby caught up to Caruana, half a point behind Firouzja, and everyone else in the event lags behind.
Yu Yangyi came close to joining Caruana and Oparin, but couldn't manage to put away Alexei Shirov, who is enjoying his best event in some years. Alexandr Predke and David Anton Guijarro drew without either player having any big chances, but Gabriel Sargissian missed a big opportunity early on against Sam Sevian before their game finished peacefully. Finally, Krishnan Sasikiran was the last of the players with a chance to join the tie for second, but he lost to Andrey Esipenko (who was the top player in the next score group).
I've annotated the first four games mentioned above, plus Esipenko's win, and - since I made fun of it in my first Notre Dame post today - I give the Kuzubov-Grandelius game as well, with some brief remarks. They are here, for your viewing pleasure.
On now to the last round. Here are the top pairings:
1. Oparin (7) - Firouzja (7.5)
2. Caruana (7) - Predke (6.5)
3. Yu (6.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (6.5)
4. Deac (6.5) - Esipenko (6.5)
5. Sargissian (6.5) - Shirov (6.5)
6. Anton Guijarro (6.5) - Sevian (6.5)
7. Howell (6.5) - Keymer (6.5)
Here's what we know for sure:
1. If Firouzja wins or draws, he qualifies.
2. If Caruana wins, he qualifies.
3. If Oparin wins, he qualifies.
What we - or at least I - don't know:
1. If Firouzja loses and Caruana draws (or loses), does he (Firouzja) have the best tiebreaks of anyone and still get through?
2. If Firouzja draws and Caruana draws, I assume that Oparin is out - even if no one from the chase pack has better tiebreaks than Oparin, I'm sure that Caruana does. Right?
3. If Firouzja draws and Caruana loses, what players, if any, have better tiebreakers than Oparin?
Searching around the usual sites for info, I didn't find anything useful except for this comment by "Peter B" (on this page): "In round 11 Fijourzja [sic] only needs a draw. Caruana will want to press hard for a win with white against Predke. If both Firouzja and Caruana draw, Caruana qualifies in about 62% of scenarios, with Yu (24%) and MVL (9%) the other main chances. Oparin's tiebreak is poor so he will need to play for a win against Firouzja." I don't know if those numbers are real, but they are interesting if true, and shows that the situation is a real mess. So I think it's safe to say that Caruana will go for a win, and I think he has excellent chances for success. I'm more worried about Firouzja's chances, since he's playing with the black pieces, but objectively he's a significant favorite for at least a draw.
Speaking of the tiebreakers (and it's tiebreaks rather than a playoff that will settle a possible tie for the Candidates' slots), here's what the tournament's regulations page (see section 4.8.3) has to say:
(Yes, why settle things by having the players fight it out in a rapid or at least a blitz playoff when you can flip a coin? It's not as if anything important is at stake, right? Ugh.)
Prepare for an exciting last round.