This is just a "breaking news" post; I'll have a proper post (much) later today. Ian Nepomniachtchi drew with Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, and could have played even more ambitiously. But this proved unnecessary, as Anish Giri felt the need to take serious risks against Alexander Grischuk in a position that couldn't justify it. Grischuk converted the point easily, and that was the end of the race for first. Giri had two problems: first, at the point where he decided to play (too) riskily, MVL was in some trouble. Second, even if he had known that the Nepomniachtchi game would finish in a draw and played for a draw as well, he'd still need to outscore Nepo by a full point in the last round. With white against Alekseenko, his part of the bargain would be reasonably possible, but counting on Ding Liren to defeat Nepomniachtchi is taking a serious chance. So, he decided to put his fate in his own hands, and on this occasion it didn't work. He'll be back, as they say.
In the other games, Fabiano Caruana gradually outplayed Wang Hao, and Ding Liren won against Kirill Alekseenko when the latter played too fast and blundered in a position where he could have won.
Games later; here are tomorrow's pairings:
Congratulations to Ian Nepomniachtchi! And now, time for early predictions. Will he upset Carlsen, or will Magnus's reign of terror continue?
**UPDATE**
First, my remark about the Wang Hao-Caruana game was in error. Caruana was pressing and making occasional progress, but every time he started to earn an edge he'd make an inaccuracy in turn. While Wang Hao made a few inaccuracies, the loss was fundamentally due to a single large error.
Second: the games, with my comments, are here.