Good news for Magnus Carlsen fans: after a listless first half of the Norway Chess tournament (four draws and a loss in classical chess), he has won his first two games in the second cycle (against Alireza Firouzja and Aryan Tari) and has jumped from a tie for fourth into clear second. And Carlsen fans with a touch of schadenfreude may also take a little perverse pleasure in his rival's difficulties: Ian Nepomniachtchi was in clear second at the halfway point, but after a draw and an Armageddon loss to Sergey Karjakin in round 6 and a loss to Firouzja in round 7, he finds himself in third, barely ahead of Firouzja and Karjakin.
So from the standpoint of Carlsen's form and confidence heading into the world championship match in November, things are looking up for the champ. As far as tournament victory is concerned, however, he's still on the outside looking in, as he remains three and a half points behind Richard Rapport. Rapport has also won his first two games in the second cycle - over Tari and Karjakin - and has been screaming up the rating list to #6 in the world. It's odd that a player of his caliber has flown under the radar the way he has, but if he finishes with a victory in the tournament, that will likely change.
Tomorrow's (Wednesday's) game could decide matters. He will have the black pieces against Carlsen, and a win would clinch at least a tie for first - only Nepomniachtchi could tie him in that cases, and only if he won his last three games while Rapport lost his last two. Granted, a win against Carlsen is a tall order, much more so with Black, but even a draw, regardless of the Armageddon result, would leave him a big favorite to win the event.
We'll see; here are tomorrow's pairings. (A reminder: a player gets 3 points for a win in the classical game, 1 for a draw, and 0 for a loss; if the game is drawn, the players have an Armageddon game with the same colors, with the winner (or Black, in case of a draw) receiving an additional half a point.)