Magnus Carlsen is remarkable - as if we didn't all already know that. He hasn't been in fantastic form, and failed to win several winnable games (which is something he rarely does). And still, despite all of that, he leads the 2022 edition of Wijk aan Zee (Tata Steel) by a full point with a round to go, has added points to his lofty rating, and thanks to Daniil Dubov's getting COVID-19 (or at least testing positive for it), Carlsen has a free point in the last round, guaranteeing tournament victory.
Early on Vidit Gujrathi led the event, and when we left off last time he was within half a point of Carlsen and Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, tied for third with Anish Giri. Unfortunately for the talented Indian player, he was unable to keep up his early pace. He drew with Richard Rapport, and then lost - with White - to his countryman Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa. "Pragg" is the lowest-rated player in the field and was in next to last place, but it didn't matter: he outplayed Vidit in a complicated middlegame and ground him down in the ending. In round 11, Vidit was losing a rook and pawn ending to Carlsen, but the champ couldn't figure out the right idea and he (Vidit) escaped. Finally, round 12 was another heartbreak with White, as what could have been a beautiful attacking win against Shakhriyar Mamedyarov resulted in a loss.
Giri had a great run, winning four in a row from rounds 6-9 (well, three wins and a forfeit point in round 7 when Dubov refused to wear a mask after being in close contact with someone who came down with COVID). In round 10 he had White against Jan-Krzysztof Duda but failed to get any advantage, and the game was drawn, but as Carlsen also drew that round he remained just half a point behind. It was only in round 11 that Giri's hopes of winning the event came to an end - and as in 2021, though under different circumstances, it was again his countryman Jorden Van Foreest who played spoiler. Van Foreest was in the middle of the pack, but played a great attacking game that even impressed Carlsen, crushing Giri on the white side of a Saemisch Nimzo-Indian. A win in round 12 against cellar-dweller Nils Grandelius would have put him into a tie for second, but after achieving a serious opening advantage a couple of errors left him fortunate that Grandelius accepted his draw offer.
Mamedyarov was tied for first with Carlsen when we left off, and they were paired in round 9. It didn't go well for the Azeri, who was crushed in 27 moves. Short draws with Sam Shankland and Sergey Karjakin followed, but with his win against Vidit in round 12 (mentioned above) he remained a point behind Carlsen, tied for second with Rapport.
Speaking of Rapport, he has had a good run over the past four rounds. He had Vidit under pressure through much of round 9, though the game finished in a draw, and then he beat Fabiano Caruana with Black in round 10. Dubov was a free point in round 11 (COVID), and at that point he was within half a point of Carlsen. In round 12 he probably took too many liberties against Andrey Esipenko, and was close to losing. Fortunately for him, Esipenko missed his chance, and the game finished in a draw.
Still, Esipenko is one of only five players with a plus score, so kudos to the youngster. He drew with Jan-Krzysztof Duda in round 9 (with some help), beat Van Foreest in round 10, and drew with Grandelius (with a little help) before being the help-er in round 12 against Rapport.
Caruana has not had a good tournament. He was on 50% after eight rounds, and he's still on 50% now after four decisive games, all won by Black. He beat Grandelius, lost to Rapport, won against Praggnanandhaa (a game he felt good about), and then lost in round 12 to Carlsen. Other players with a 50% score are Karjakin, Van Foreest, and Vidit.
Having talked about the challengers and pretenders, let's get back to the World Champion and tournament leader. As already mentioned, he defeated Mamedyarov in round 9 and Caruana in round 12, and both wins were convincing. Round 10 was a sort of half-point bye, as Karjakin played with no ambition whatsoever and allowed Carlsen to repeat (with Black) using a line that many others have played for that same purpose. As also noted above, he was very close to defeating Vidit in round 11. It's a slight pity that he didn't win that game (and still defeat Caruana), as there would then be no issue about what might have been, had he played Dubov in the last round. Anyway, congrats to Carlsen, who has clinched tournament victory. He is the best player in the world, though Alireza Firouzja and perhaps Ding Liren will have something to say about that in the next year or two.
Here are the games from rounds 9-12, with my comments, and here are the last round pairings: