Full points have been hard to come by in the Superbet Chess Classic, and for the fifth time in eight rounds only one game finished with a winner. That game was not critical to the race for first, but one of the games that was crucial could very easily have finished with a winner. Let's recap the round:
First, the win. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov had a chance for an edge early against Leinier Dominguez, had he played a4-a5 before Black played the equalizing ...a6-a5. After that, the game seemed headed for a draw, though Mamedyarov seemed to be playing, without justification, for more. Mamedyarov's 40th move was objectively losing, and though he caught a break when Dominguez erred in turn on move 41, he immediately returned the favor with a further mistake on move 43. Dominguez replied correctly, and this time there was no hope of another "amnesty", so Mamedyarov resigned, falling into a tie for last place.
On the other end of the tournament table there's Levon Aronian, who entered - and exited - the round tied for first with Wesley So. Aronian's position was computer-okay against Ian Nepomniachtchi both before and after his decision to give up a couple of minor pieces for a rook and a pawn, but that material imbalance is generally much more dangerous for the side picking up the rook and pawn. So it was here: a single, but significant, error on move 33 (33...c6?) handed White a winning advantage after 34.b5 and 36.b6. Black should not be able to keep his pawn on b7 safe, at least not without losing the farm on the kingside, and while both sides made inaccuracies and errors Nepo was well on his way to victory. Humanly speaking, Aronian was resilient in defense, but with 75.Nh4+ White could still have proved a decisive advantage. Instead, 75.Ne5? gave Aronian the chance to prove the draw, which he managed after a study-like series of only-moves.
As for the other co-leader; well, he took the day off. So had White against Alireza Firouzja, but when the latter played the King's Indian against him rather than the Gruenfeld, he played the toothless 7.dxe5, 8.Qxd8 line. The game was as good as dead after White's 16th move, and the remainder was necessary only for the sake of satisfying the Sofia rules.
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave could have caught the leaders with a win, and with White against bottom seed Bogdan Deac it looked like a great opportunity. When Deac played a touch inaccurately against MVL's surprising 11.Be3 the Frenchman's fans had even more reason for optimism, but a return inaccuracy and Deac's nice 16th move returned the game to equality. From there Deac played very well, and never gave White any further opportunities for anything but a draw.
Finally, Fabiano Caruana obtained a serious advantage out of the opening against Richard Rapport. Neither player appreciated how good White's position would be after a2-a4 or a3-a4 (on moves 19, 20, and 21), and failing to play that or to take advantage of several opportunities, Caruana let Rapport escape. After Black's 25th move, he finally equalized, and from there on played flawlessly to hold the draw.
One round remains, and it looks like Aronian, who saved lost positions in this round and back in round 3 against Firouzja, has an excellent chance to win the tournament. He will have White in the last round against Mamedyarov, while So will have Black against Dominguez and MVL (half a point behind) will be Black against Firouzja. (In case of a tie for first, there will be a playoff after the round.)
Today's games, with my comments, are here; these are the final round pairings: