Here’s what a random blogger wrote yesterday:

As for Ding, the truth, obviously, was that he needed a little time to get acclimated, and now that he has he’ll finish in second place - at worst.

This is the full and sober truth, the entire explanation, and the final word on what has happened and why—at least until something happens in the next three rounds to upend these tidy explanations. But fear not: once that happens, the commentariat will confabulate a new “full and sober truth”, and if we wait until the tournament is over the new story will undoubtedly stand the test of time…

I think I’ll wait until after round 14 of the Candidates to offer the “full and sober truth” - not that I have any partial and drunken truths to offer in the meantime. Just the facts: Ding Liren’s three-game winning streak came to a halt (see this dramatization of today’s game) when Teimour Radjabov - with Black - massacred him with a direct attack in just 26 moves. Was Ding tired? Careless after all his success? Who knows. Whatever the real explanation, it was a harsh encounter with reality.

And yet, it’s not so bad. Hikaru Nakamura was able to catch up to him after his marathon 14-move, six-minute game with Ian Nepomniachtchi. To take clear first and guarantee himself a world championship match against somebody Nepo just needs to score in the next two rounds, or have Ding and Nakamura fail to win both of their remaining games.

As for fourth place, well, there’s a tie, half a point behind Ding and Nakamura. Radjabov is half of the tie, and Caruana, whose whole second half of the tournament is a repeated version of the dramatization linked above, is the other half. He played a steady draw against Richard Rapport, in which first one and then the other player had a slight advantage, but neither player missed out on any major opportunities.

Finally, Alireza Firouzja was on his way off the cliff against Jan-Krzysztof Duda, but was rescued - twice - and saved a draw. (Today’s games, with my comments, are here.)

We now have the final rest day coming up, and the last two rounds will be on Sunday and Monday. (If a “miracle” happens and there’s a tie for first, there will be a playoff on Tuesday.) Here are the pairings for the last two rounds:

Round 13:

Nepomniachtchi (8.5) - Rapport (5)

Nakamura (6.5) - Duda (5)

Firouzja (5) - Ding (6.5)

Radjabov (6) - Caruana (6)

Round 14:

Rapport - Radjabov

Caruana - Firouzja

Ding - Nakamura

Duda - Nepomniachtchi

The race for first is over, but the race for second is very much open, and will likely come down to tiebreaks. Whether that will matter is up to Magnus Carlsen, and his desire to face Nepomniachtchi in another World Championship match. Time will tell.