FIDE Grand Swiss, Round 11 (Last Round): Firouzja, Caruana Qualify After Everyone Draws

A slight exaggeration, but with respect to the boards that mattered for qualification to the Candidates and, I think, to next year's FIDE Grand Prix, not an exaggeration at all as every game on board 1-13 finished peacefully. It's a slightly surprising conclusion to the FIDE Grand Swiss, but the lure of money and the Grand Prix (see below) mitigated against significant risk for most of the leaders.

That's not to say that all the games were peaceful. 18-year-old Alireza Firouzja, who deservedly won the tournament, had a fairly easy time of it against Grigoriy Oparin. It's not that Oparin didn't try with the white pieces, but that Firouzja played well and didn't give him any chances. On board 2, Fabiano Caruana had White against Alexandr Predke and played with some ambition, but Predke played well and held. The upshot of these two games was that Firouzja took clear first and Oparin failed to qualify for the Candidates. What about Caruana? I think, but am not sure, that a win by either player in the Yu Yangyi - Maxime Vachier-Lagrave might have let him pass Caruana on tiebreaks. In fact Yu was winning at one moment, but missed his chance. That probably sealed the deal for Caruana, but as none of the players in the next score group won there was no need to count anyone's tiebreak scores other than Oparin's, and his were inadequate.

The other games featuring players who started the day half a point behind Caruana and Oparin also finished in a draw: Bogdan-Daniel Deac vs. Andrey Esipenko saw Deac have some early chances that disappeared almost immediately. Gabriel Sargissian and Alexei Shirov were content to repeat a repetition in the Botvinnik Semi-Slav that goes back to 1996; David Anton Guijarro and Sam Sevian didn't reproduce known theory, but their game was also quickly drawn without any missed chances. Finally, David Howell and Vincent Keymer played a longer game, but there don't seem to have been any major missed opportunities there either.

The draws kept on coming in the next score group, but two players worked their way up into the score group that finished in the big tie for fourth. Vladislav Artemiev defeated Kirill Shevchenko and Anton Korobov defeated Krishnan Sasikiran, in both cases with Black.

To summarize: Firouzja won with 8/11, Caruana and Oparin finished with 7.5 points apiece but with Caruana taking the second qualifying spot for the Candidates. In tiebreak order, the following 13(!) players finished tied for 4th-16th places: Yu, Keymer, MVL, Predke, Shirov, Howell, Sargissian, Anton Guijarro, Korobov, Sevian, Esipenko, Deac, and Artemiev.

My understanding is that those who finished in the top eight, excluding the two players who qualified for the Candidates, qualify for the FIDE Grand Prix, a series of tournaments which will determine the last two qualifying spots for next year's Candidates. If that's right, then Oparin, Yu, Keymer (16 years old!), MVL, Predke, and Shirov (49 years old!) have punched their ticket to those events. Congratulations to them as well!

Finally then, here are the known Candidates for 2022:

1. Magnus Carlsen or Ian Nepomniachtchi (whoever loses their World Championship match, which starts in just under three weeks)
2. Teimour Radjabov (FIDE's wildcard, as compensation for his withdrawal from the previous Candidates due to COVID concerns)
3. Jan-Krzysztof Duda (winner of the 2021 Chess World Cup)
4. Sergey Karjakin (runner-up of the 2021 Chess World Cup)
5. Alireza Firouzja (winner of the 2021 FIDE Grand Swiss)
6. Fabiano Caruana (runner-up of the 2021 FIDE Grand Swiss)

What's next on the chess calendar? The World Championship match starts on the 26th (presumably that's the date for the opening ceremony, with play commencing the following day), but before that there's the European Team Championship starting this coming Thursday (November 11) and the GCT rapid & blitz event in Kolkata, India on November 17. Remember to let me know if you are interested in signing up for my World Championship match coverage in the next several days!

FIDE Grand Swiss, Round 10: Firouzja Regains the Sole Lead Entering the Last Round

After a disappointing loss to Fabiano Caruana in round 9, Alireza Firouzja showed impressive resilience by bouncing back with a win in round 10 of the FIDE Grand Swiss. By defeating David Howell, who entered the round sharing the lead with Firouzja and Caruana, he retook the sole lead, as Caruana only drew (with Black) against Maxime Vachier-Lagrave. Meanwhile, no player who entered the round only half a point back managed to win his game, with one exception: Grigoriy Oparin. By defeating the favored Nikita Vitiugov - and with Black - he has put himself in a great position to take one of the two qualifying spots for next year's Candidates. His fate is in his hands, as he'll have White against Firouzja in the last round. He almost certainly needs a win, as Caruana will have the white pieces against Alexandr Predke, and he will be a heavy favorite.

We'll get back into this in a moment, but first a summary of some of the action in round 10. Firouzja's win over Howell was of great competitive significance, obviously, but it was a fine game in its own right. It wasn't a battle of nerves where the player who made the next-to-last mistake survived and won, but a quality victory by the young superstar.

With a win over MVL, Caruana would have kept the pace, but this was never going to be easy, especially with the black pieces. He did a solid, professional job, held the draw, and put himself in an excellent position to qualify for a Candidates spot.

Oparin's win was deserved, and although his tournament standing is a shock his victory over Vitiugov was no fluke. Vitiugov accepted a poor structure in return for attacking chances, and on this occasion the defense was better than the attack. Oparin thereby caught up to Caruana, half a point behind Firouzja, and everyone else in the event lags behind.

Yu Yangyi came close to joining Caruana and Oparin, but couldn't manage to put away Alexei Shirov, who is enjoying his best event in some years. Alexandr Predke and David Anton Guijarro drew without either player having any big chances, but Gabriel Sargissian missed a big opportunity early on against Sam Sevian before their game finished peacefully. Finally, Krishnan Sasikiran was the last of the players with a chance to join the tie for second, but he lost to Andrey Esipenko (who was the top player in the next score group).

I've annotated the first four games mentioned above, plus Esipenko's win, and - since I made fun of it in my first Notre Dame post today - I give the Kuzubov-Grandelius game as well, with some brief remarks. They are here, for your viewing pleasure.

On now to the last round. Here are the top pairings:

1. Oparin (7) - Firouzja (7.5)
2. Caruana (7) - Predke (6.5)
3. Yu (6.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (6.5)
4. Deac (6.5) - Esipenko (6.5)
5. Sargissian (6.5) - Shirov (6.5)
6. Anton Guijarro (6.5) - Sevian (6.5)
7. Howell (6.5) - Keymer (6.5)

Here's what we know for sure:

1. If Firouzja wins or draws, he qualifies.

2. If Caruana wins, he qualifies.

3. If Oparin wins, he qualifies.

What we - or at least I - don't know:

1. If Firouzja loses and Caruana draws (or loses), does he (Firouzja) have the best tiebreaks of anyone and still get through?

2. If Firouzja draws and Caruana draws, I assume that Oparin is out - even if no one from the chase pack has better tiebreaks than Oparin, I'm sure that Caruana does. Right?

3. If Firouzja draws and Caruana loses, what players, if any, have better tiebreakers than Oparin?

Searching around the usual sites for info, I didn't find anything useful except for this comment by "Peter B" (on this page): "In round 11 Fijourzja [sic] only needs a draw. Caruana will want to press hard for a win with white against Predke. If both Firouzja and Caruana draw, Caruana qualifies in about 62% of scenarios, with Yu (24%) and MVL (9%) the other main chances. Oparin's tiebreak is poor so he will need to play for a win against Firouzja." I don't know if those numbers are real, but they are interesting if true, and shows that the situation is a real mess. So I think it's safe to say that Caruana will go for a win, and I think he has excellent chances for success. I'm more worried about Firouzja's chances, since he's playing with the black pieces, but objectively he's a significant favorite for at least a draw.

Speaking of the tiebreakers (and it's tiebreaks rather than a playoff that will settle a possible tie for the Candidates' slots), here's what the tournament's regulations page (see section 4.8.3) has to say: 

• a) Buchholz Cut 1
• b) Buchholz
• c) Sonneborn-Berger
• d) Direct encounter between the players in [the] tie
• e) Drawing of lots 

(Yes, why settle things by having the players fight it out in a rapid or at least a blitz playoff when you can flip a coin? It's not as if anything important is at stake, right? Ugh.)

Prepare for an exciting last round.

FIDE Grand Swiss, Round 9: Caruana Beats Firouzja; They Lead With Howell With Two Rounds To Go

The FIDE Grand Swiss is getting exciting! Just when Alireza Firouzja was on the verge of guaranteeing himself a spot in next year's Candidates tournament, he had the misfortune of facing the tournament's top seed with the black pieces. For Fabiano Caruana, it was a must win situation, and win he did. He played great chess in the opening through the early ending, but a mistake on move 23 let Firouzja get back into the game. It still wasn't easy for Black to hold, and when he mistakenly went for active counterplay with 35...Kd3 and 36...Ke2, Caruana got a second chance to win. This time he converted, and caught up with Firouzja in first.

A three-way tie for first, because David Howell won a good game against Anton Korobov. Through most of the event Howell had been at least a couple of score groups behind the leaders, but after his loss to Caruana in round 5 he has reeled off four wins in a row (against Nodirbek Yakubboev, Ruslan Ponomariov, Andrey Esipenko, and now Korobov). Remarkable.

Of course, the three leaders have the best shot at the two qualifying spots for the Candidates, but they have little security when it comes to the rest of the field, as ten players are just half a point behind: Krishnan Sasikiran, Yu Yangyi, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, Alexandr Predke, Alexei Shirov (still hanging in there!), Grigoriy Oparin, David Anton Guijarro, Gabriel Sargissian, Sam Sevian, and Nikita Vitiugov.

Here are the pairings for the penultimate round:

1. Firouzja (6.5) - Howell (6.5)
2. Vachier-Lagrave (6) - Caruana (6.5) (Not exactly a day off for Caruana!)
3. Vitiugov (6) - Oparin (6)
4. Shirov (6) - Yu (6)
5. Predke (6) - Anton Guijarro (6)
6. Sevian (6) - Sargissian (6)
7. Esipenko (5.5) - Sasikiran (6)

I've annotated a selection of games from round 9: some for their importance at the top of the standings, some because of the tactics therein, and one - Gelfand-Movsesian - for being spectacular from start to finish. Have a look.

FIDE Grand Swiss, Round 8: Firouzja Wins Again, Leads by a Full Point

Things are still looking up for Alireza Firouzja, and that's putting it mildly. He got White again, won again (over Krishnan Sasikiran), and extended his lead in the FIDE Grand Prix to a full point over the closest pursuers. It's not as important, but he also kicked his rating up to 2784, putting him at #4 in the world - leapfrogging Magnus Carlsen's forthcoming match opponent, Ian Nepomniachtchi. And Firouzja is just 18! He shouldn't get overconfident, of course: if he loses in round 9, for instance, as many as six players could be tied with him, and there would still be two rounds to go. It's too soon to celebrate, but he is in a great position.

Going into the round, there were three players half a point behind him. He defeated one of them, while the other two - Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and the resurgent veteran Alexei Shirov - drew their game, so now the closest pursuers are a full point back. And it's a large group, including not only MVL and Shirov but the eight players in the next score group who all won their games. That group most notably includes Fabiano Caruana, who will have the white pieces against Firouzja in round 9. (As noted above, it's too soon for Firouzja to celebrate.)

Here are the leading pairings for round 9:

1. Caruana (5.5) - Firouzja (6.5)
2. Anton Guijarro (5.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (5.5)
3. Shirov (5.5) - Vitiugov (5.5)
4. Howell (5.5) - Korobov (5.5)
5. Oparin (5.5) - Predke (5.5)
6. Harikrisha (5) - Sevian (5.5)

In addition to Harikrishna, there are 14 other players with 5 points. Remember that there are two Candidates' slots up for grabs here, so if we assume for simplicity's sake that Firouzja will earn one of the spots, there are 25 players within half a point of each other fighting for the other one. The players are now thoroughly motivated, as we saw with all the blood spilled on the top boards. I've given all the decisive games from round 8 featuring players with at least 4.5 points, here, with varying degrees of commentary.

FIDE Grand Swiss: Five Leaders After Six Rounds

Alireza Firouzja, Evgenij Najer, and Alexei Shirov continue to lead the FIDE Grand Swiss after six rounds of 11, but they have been joined by two more players. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave butchered Pavel Ponkratov, while Krishnan Sasikiran overcame Alexandr Predke with Black to make it a five-way tie at 4.5/6. Another 15 players are just half a point back, including Fabiano Caruana, so obviously nothing has been decided at this point.

A few words about some of the games. Firouzja had some winning chances against Shirov, but Mr. Fire on Board's aggressive counterattack saved the day - barely. Najer was definitely winning against Caruana, who may have been taking too many chances in the hopes of defeating a significantly lower-rated opponent. It very nearly cost him the game; indeed, even at the end, when Najer allowed/blundered into a three-time repetition, Caruana's position was probably lost. As already noted above, MVL won in brutal fashion against Ponkratov; all three games mentioned in this paragraph are given, with my comments, here - as are three other games, included on account of some nice tactical points.

Here are the round 7 pairings for the top 10 boards:

1. Firouzja (4.5) - Najer (4.5)
2. Sasikiran (4.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (4.5)
3. Esipenko (4) - Shirov (4.5)
4. Caruana (4) - Sevian (4)
5. Anton (4) - Dubov (4)
6. Yu (4) - Deac (4)
7. Navara (4) - Sarana (4)
8. Petrosyan (4) - Korobov (4)
9. Sargissian (4) - Sarin (4)
10. Tari (4) - Sjugirov (4)

FIDE Grand Swiss, Round 5: Firouzja, Najer, and Shirov Lead with 4 Points Apiece

As usual, there have been lots of draws on the top boards of the FIDE Grand Swiss, so a huge number of players are within striking distance of the lead. Alireza Firouzja continues to lead after his draw, but he has been caught by Evgeniy Najer and - a blast from the past - Alexei Shirov. They each have four points, good for a half point lead over 14 other players, including Fabiano Caruana, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, Yu Yangyi, and youngsters Samuel Sevian and Nihal Sarin. All the aforementioned players feature in the pairings for the top 5 boards of round 6: Shirov-Firouzja, Najer-Caruana, MVL-Ponkratov, Sevian-Yu, and Sarin-Navara.

Six rounds remain to determine two more slots for the 2022 Candidates. For now, here are three games from round 5, with my comments.

FIDE Grand Swiss, Round 4: Firouzja Continues to Lead

On the top boards there have been a lot of draws throughout the event, and that has continued in round 4. Alireza Firouzja gave up his first half point in the event, but remained in clear first as none of the 2.5-pointers coming into the round won their games, either. Some 2-pointers won, so now there are 11 players nipping at Firouzja's heels. Seven rounds remain, so it's too soon to get too excited.

I've annotated a couple of games from round 4, plus the game Predke-Yakubboev from round 2, mentioned by a couple of readers in the comments. Enjoy!

A (Downgraded) FIDE Grand Swiss is Underway; Firouzja the Early Leader

The FIDE Grand Swiss has a weaker field than was originally intended. First it moved, from the Isle of Man to Riga, and then because Covid is a problem there many leading players bowed out, including Alexander Grischuk, Richard Rapport, Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, Hikaru Nakamura, and Vidit Gujrathi. The top seed Fabiano Caruana is still playing, and other members of the super-elite are participating as well.

That includes the third seed, 2770-rated Alireza Firouzja, who is the only player to still have a perfect score after three rounds. With eight rounds to go, none of the contenders need to lose sleep over that fact, though if he can keep winning for a few more rounds Caruana et al will have cause to get a bit nervous. This isn't "just" another big tournament; it's a qualifier for the 2022 Candidates tournament. To refresh your memories, four spots are already committed: the loser of next month's World Championship match, Teimour Rajdabov as the FIDE nominee, and Jan-Krzysztof Duda and Sergey Karjakin as the top two finishers of this year's World Cup. (The remaining slots will go to the top two finishers in the 2022 FIDE Grand Prix, to be held between February and April of next year.)

I've annotated six games from the first three rounds, and will continue to present games from the event as it continues. (And readers, if a game especially catches your eye, please mention it in the comments.) Enjoy.