2020/1 Candidates, Round 13: Nepo Clinches a Title Shot **UPDATED**

This is just a "breaking news" post; I'll have a proper post (much) later today. Ian Nepomniachtchi drew with Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, and could have played even more ambitiously. But this proved unnecessary, as Anish Giri felt the need to take serious risks against Alexander Grischuk in a position that couldn't justify it. Grischuk converted the point easily, and that was the end of the race for first. Giri had two problems: first, at the point where he decided to play (too) riskily, MVL was in some trouble. Second, even if he had known that the Nepomniachtchi game would finish in a draw and played for a draw as well, he'd still need to outscore Nepo by a full point in the last round. With white against Alekseenko, his part of the bargain would be reasonably possible, but counting on Ding Liren to defeat Nepomniachtchi is taking a serious chance. So, he decided to put his fate in his own hands, and on this occasion it didn't work. He'll be back, as they say.

In the other games, Fabiano Caruana gradually outplayed Wang Hao, and Ding Liren won against Kirill Alekseenko when the latter played too fast and blundered in a position where he could have won.

Games later; here are tomorrow's pairings: 

• Caruana (7) - Grichuk (6.5)
• Giri (7.5) - Alekseenko (4.5)
• Ding Liren (6) - Nepomniachtchi (8.5)
• Vachier-Lagrave (7) - Wang Hao (5) 

Congratulations to Ian Nepomniachtchi! And now, time for early predictions. Will he upset Carlsen, or will Magnus's reign of terror continue?

**UPDATE**

First, my remark about the Wang Hao-Caruana game was in error. Caruana was pressing and making occasional progress, but every time he started to earn an edge he'd make an inaccuracy in turn. While Wang Hao made a few inaccuracies, the loss was fundamentally due to a single large error.

Second: the games, with my comments, are here.

2020/1 Candidates, Round 12: Nepo, Giri, MVL Win

(And so did Ding Liren, but he's out of the race for first.)

For most of the day, it looked like Anish Giri was the story of the round. He defeated Fabiano Caruana, with Black, in a very well-played game where Caruana was the first player to break new ground. It was a great achievement by Giri, and not only seemed to guarantee him a share of the lead with two rounds to go, but he also put an end to Caruana's hopes of achieving a second world championship match with Magnus Carlsen. (Or close. He may yet be mathematically alive, assuming there are no tiebreak problems.) All of those accomplishments deserve the praise that I and many other commentators are bestowing upon Giri, but there is one hiccup that must be noted. Ian Nepomniachtchi somehow managed to defeat Wang Hao from what had been an extremely drawish position (and Wang's premature resignation was a nice "chef's kiss" touch to his self-destruction, and all-around odd performance in the second cycle). So, despite Giri's win and his streak of 3.5 points in his last four games, he remains half a point behind Nepo heading into the final rest day.

Still alive in the hunt for first, but just barely, is Maxime Vachier-Lagrave. His performance in the second cycle had been very poor, but today he won an excellent game against bottom seed Kirill Alekseenko to stay within a point and a half of Nepomniachtchi with two games to go. More good news for MVL: he plays Nepo in the next round, but he'll have the black pieces.

Finally, as noted in the parenthetical at the top of the post, Ding Liren won, putting an end to Alexander Grischuk's hopes in the event. (Grischuk entered the round tied with MVL, a point and a half behind Nepomniachtchi.) Grischuk played solidly all game, but then played wildly and badly after the time control, speedily turning a very drawish position into a loss.

(The games, with my comments, are here.)

So, with two rounds to go, there are two favorites, Nepo and Giri, with MVL having a small chance and Caruana (at best) a snowball's chance. The players have Sunday off, and here are the pairings for the penultimate round on Monday and the finale on Tuesday. (It is technically possible for there to be a playoff, but it's unlikely, and the mere fact of a tie doesn't guarantee it - the players involved must be tied on multiple tiebreakers as well.)

Round 13 Pairings:

• Wang Hao (5) - Caruana (6)
• Nepomniachtchi (8) - Vachier-Lagrave (6.5)
• Alekseenko (4.5) - Ding Liren (5)
• Grischuk (5.5) - Giri (7.5)

Round 14 Pairings:

• Caruana - Grischuk
• Giri - Alekseenko
• Ding Liren - Nepomniachtchi
• Vachier-Lagrave - Wang Hao

Nepomniachtchi has a half-point lead over Giri, while Giri has the easier schedule--especially on the last day. And it doesn't help Nepo that Ding won today and gets to play the tournament's tailender and bottom seed on Monday; he may enter the last round with plenty of confidence and even a touch of ambition, if a win would bring him up to 50%. Nepo has another very important advantage, though: he beat Giri in the first cycle, so if they finish the 14th round with the same number of points (and no one else is tied with or ahead of them), Nepomniachtchi wins on tiebreaks.

In case the event finishes in a two-way tie between Giri and MVL, I'm not sure who finishes ahead on tiebreaks. The head-to-head was event, as they drew both games, but there are other tiebreaks as well. As for a two-way tie for first between Nepo and MVL, MVL would win that one on tiebreaks--but it's an unlikely scenario. MVL would have to defeat Nepo in round 13, and then outscore him by a half a point in the last round - let's say MVL wins and Nepo draws. That's not impossible, but the only way they finish in a two-way tie for first is if Giri only manages half a point in his last two games. It's possible, but unlikely. As for what would happen in case of a three-way tie for first, I'm not sure.

The most fun scenario, from a clown-car disaster perspective, comes if Nepo loses his last two games, MVL beats Nepo and draws with Wang Hao, Giri scores half a point in his last two games, and Caruana finishes with two wins. Then all four players tie for first. (Note that Caruana can also be involved in a three-way or even a two-way tie for first.)

All these conjectures are entertaining, but it's also possible that the tournament ends, practically speaking, on Monday. If Nepomniachtchi wins and Giri fails to win, Nepo clinches.

2020/1 Candidates, Round 10: Nepomniachtchi Pushes The Lead to a Full Point

Four rounds are still enough time for the three gentlemen tied for second place to catch up to Ian Nepomniachtchi - after all, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave was able to make up that one point gap in their head-to-head game in the last round of the first cycle. But it's not a lot of time, and if he increases the lead in the next round it's probably as good as over. We'll see what happens in round 11, after the rest day; for now, let's summarize round 10.

As indicated in the subject line, Nepomniachtchi extended his lead to a full point, taking full advantage of having the white pieces against the lowest-rated player in the field. Kirill Alekseenko seemed completely unprepared for what Nepo played - there was no need for White to produce some sort of clever prep, as Black was at sea from the get-go. White was clearly better after 11 moves, probably winning after 14, and Black could plausibly have resigned after 20 moves. It was a disaster for Alekseenko, who had played well in the first two games of this cycle.

The other three games were drawn. Fabiano Caruana started the round half a point behind Nepo, and had White against Ding Liren. Ding seemed the better prepared player on the day, and if anything it was Caruana who had to sweat a little to make a draw.

The two other players tied for second, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Anish Giri, were paired with each other. I'm not sure if MVL was ever "mathematically winning", but on multiple occasions he had a serious plus against Giri. All went by the wayside, and once the players made the time control at move 40 they called it a day.

The most exciting game was the only one with few-to-no implications for the battle for first. After 20 moves, Wang Hao had a slight edge against Alexander Grischuk on the board, but a huge lead on the clock. (Grischuk was down to around three minutes to make his next 20 moves, though we shouldn't forget the 30-second increment after each move.) Wang decided to roll the dice with an interesting queen sacrifice; unfortunately for him, he miscalculated (or misassessed) something and was soon not only better (as he was before the sac) or equal (the objective evaluation after it), but lost. Only here did Grischuk's time trouble pay any dividends for his opponent: his 29th move allowed a nice shot, and his follow-up brought the game back to equal. Both players were very short of time now, but were able to coast in from here to the time control, and after 41 moves settled on a peaceful result.

As noted above, tomorrow (Thursday) is a rest day, and they'll go back at it on Friday. Here are today's games, with my comments, and here are the pairings for round 11:

• Nepomniachtchi (6.5) - Caruana (5.5) (A win by either player would be of colossal importance for the standings.)
• Alekseenko (4) - Wang Hao (4.5)
• Grischuk (4.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (5.5)
• Giri (5.5) - Ding Liren (4)

Anish Giri Wins the 2021 Magnus Carlsen Invitational

After the anti-climactic semifinals, it was fortunate for us as chess fans that we got to enjoy a dramatic final match between Anish Giri and Ian Nepomniachtchi. As we already saw in the preceding post, they split their first mini-match 2-2, after four draws, and as it turned out...they split the second day's match 2-2 as well - but not with four draws.

In game 1, Nepomniachtchi had White, and once against it was a Najdorf with 6.Bg5 e6 7.f4 Qb6. This time, however, Nepo prevented the capture on b2 with 8.Nb3. This line can be a little dry, but not this time. The play was sharp and tactical, and the result was a draw that was well-played by both sides.

Giri also played well in game 2, but it was a bad outing for his opponent. White's opening play, whether the product of preparation or excellence at the board, gave him a significant advantage. Nepomniachtchi hung in there, in a difficult position, but his 18th move was a major error, leaving him a pawn down with a lousy position. Giri converted his advantage without much trouble.

Game 3 was another Averted Poisoned Pawn, to propose a name for the 8.Nb3 line, and once again the players managed to sharpen what can be a relatively quiet line. It was Giri who had some chances for more than a draw, but Nepomniachtchi eventually escaped.

Despite that escape, he was still in a very difficult situation, needing to win game 4 with Black to split the second match, maintain a tie in the overall match, and force a blitz playoff. And this he did, though early on his position in a Rossolimo was precarious. Giri played his worst game of the match, slipping from a promising and advantageous position to one that was equal, then a bit worse, and then lost. One slip by Nepo gave Giri a single chance to save the game, but he missed it, after which Nepo won confidently and convincingly.

Nepomniachtchi had Black in the first blitz game, but it looked like this would prove as little an obstacle as it did in the previous game. An unsound piece sac by Giri left Nepo with an objectively winning advantage, and he retained this advantage for eight moves or so. Alas, when consolidation was not too far away, he blundered, losing his extra material (and then some) while retaining his other disadvantages. He was forced to resign soon afterwards, and once again faced a must-win situation.

The good news was that he could use the white pieces this time, but he obtained nothing from the opening. More importantly, he blundered on move 16, leaving himself the option of sacrificing the exchange (without any compensation) or maintaining material equality at the cost of a strategically hopeless position. He chose the latter option, after which not even the short time control allowed him to scrape up even a whiff of counterplay. Giri was able to coast in with a comfortable win, giving him the game, the match, and the championship.

This was not the only match, but it was the only one with any drama. In the match for third place, Magnus Carlsen had already won the first day's mini-match against Wesley So (reported in the previous post), and started this day with a win in the first game. Draws in the next two games clinched at least a tie in the second mini-match, and since So could only save the overall match by winning the second mini-match, their contest ended at that point.

Congrats to the winner and all the players on the metaphorical medal platform! Here are the games from the final day of play, most of them with my comments. Tournament website here.

Magnus Carlsen Invitational: Day 1 of the Finals

The first day of the finals is over, and fortunately for the spectators we got two matches for the price of one. There's the match between Anish Giri and Ian Nepomniachtchi for all the marbles (or at least the lion's share of them, i.e., for first place), but there's also a match for third between the semi-final losers Magnus Carlsen and Wesley So. It's not that the Giri-Nepo match was a snoozefest; in fact, they played interesting chess, and while all four games finished peacefully Giri had chances to win, especially in game 1. Meanwhile, Carlsen bludgeoned So, winning miniatures in games 1 and 4.

Tomorrow is the final day of the tournament, and then we can start rubbing our hands in glee awaiting the resumption of the Candidates tournament next month. But this event is not over, and I've annotated most of today's (or yesterday's, depending on where you are) games for you, here.

Magnus Carlsen Invitational: It's Giri vs. Nepomniachtchi in the Finals

It has been a few days, and any delays on my part cannot be chalked up to NCAA basketball (who cares? Notre Dame isn't playing). I could try to blame my getting my first vaccination (no side effects, thankfully, though I'm hoping it will improve my playing strength by a couple of hundred points), but that would be a joke. Anyway, delays or not, you'll at least benefit by receiving a bunch of annotated games. (Mostly light annotations [insert photon joke here], but there should be something instructive or at least entertaining in the mix.)

To catch up where we left off, we had this situation after day 1 of the quarterfinals: Magnus Carlsen and Wesley So had won their first mini-matches with Levon Aronian and Alireza Firouzja, respectively, while the Ian Nepomniachtchi vs. Hikaru Nakamura and Anish Giri vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave mini-matches were drawn. Unfortunately, there was little drama on day two, and after two games all four contests were at match point. Carlsen won game 1 and drew game 2 with Aronian, and needed just one more draw to clinch the match. So did the same but in reverse, winning game 2 after a draw in game 1. Nepomniachtchi won both games 1 and 2 against Nakamura, while Giri won game 2 after an initial drew against MVL.

Three of the matches finished after the next game - Carlsen drew, So won, and Nepo drew, and all three thereby advanced. Giri's draw in the third game gave Vachier-Lagrave the chance to force a tiebreaker, if the latter could win with Black in game 4, but as it happened he lost in a Modern in just 20 moves.

On to the semis, with the pairings Carlsen-Nepomniachtchi and So-Giri, with the favorites - and ultimately, match losers - listed first. Nothing terrible happened in the first two games on day 1: two clean draws in the first match, and a win for So with Black in game 1 (thanks to a Giri blunder). So made what I take to be a mistake in game 2 (though some think this strategy is okay), wasting the white pieces by allowing Giri to make the same draw that occurred three months earlier in the game So-Nepomniachtchi. Giri built off of this psychological respite with a win in the third game, and then took advantage of So's blunders in the last game to take the first day's mini-match 2.5-1.5. As for Carlsen, game 3 was a disaster. A good opening and early middlegame gave him a winning advantage with White, but a fairly simple oversight prevented him from exploiting that advantage. He was still okay after that, but a later, mistaken exchange sacrifice left him with a lost position, and Nepomniachtchi cashed in to take the lead. Carlsen tried hard in game 4, but Nepo held and won the day, 2.5-1.5.

On day two, So was unable to dent Giri. He had a chance in the first game, but failed to convert, and Giri also had a chance for a significant advantage in game 2. But both games were drawn, as was game 3, and So was forced to play for a win with Black in game 4 to force a tiebreaker. He achieved a good position with the French, and after Giri's poor 26th move So was clearly better. Unfortunately, his reply was an outright blunder, and after Giri's 27th move So resigned, losing the game, mini-match, and the overall match.

Carlsen's comeback went better - though not at first. Game 1 was drawn, and then he lost game 2, overpressing once again. Now all Nepo needed was a draw to end the match, and in game 3 he had plenty of opportunities to achieve that aim. Every time he came close, however, he'd make a mistake, and after one error too many Carlsen managed to win. Game 4 was a blowout: Nepo was crushed out of the opening, and Carlsen sailed to a second straight win and victory in the second mini-match, tying the overall match 1-1 and forcing a blitz tiebreaker.

Nepomniachtchi had White in the first game, which went for a very long time, though without managing to be of much interest. Carlsen enjoyed a nominal endgame edge, and for simplicity's sake Nepo bailed out into the endgame R vs. R+N. While it's not impossible to lose the ending (we all remember Judit Polgar's loss to Garry Kasparov, right?) it's much easier to hold than R vs. R+B, and the weaker side generally holds it without much trouble. As one would expect from a near-2800 player, Nepo was holding it comfortably, and after 45 moves of mild suffering Carlsen blundered his rook (presumably a mouse-slip or a pre-move error). Now it was the World Champion's turn to hold a semi-trivial inferior ending (rook vs. knight), and after 36 or so more moves they finally called it a game: draw.

After those misadventures, it was Carlsen's shot with the white pieces. If the game finished in a draw, they'd go to Armageddon, but as Carlsen obtained the advantage and "his" kind of position, it looked like he'd win and advance to the finals. Surprisingly, his technique was a bit shaky, and when he once again overpressed in what had become an equal ending he went on to lose.

So that's where things stand: we've got a Giri vs. Nepomniachtchi final. Here are all the games from the semi-final matches, with at least cursory comments to most of the games.

Nepomniachtchi Wins Russian Championship (With a Big Assist from Dubov)

Entering the last round of the 2020 Russian Championship (or the Russian Extreme Mega Stupendous Superfinal, or whatever they're calling it this year) Ian Nepomniachtchi and Sergey Karjakin were tied for first, with Vladimir Fedoseev a point behind. All three leaders had the black pieces, making the first order of business not losing rather than winning.

Indeed, none of the players managed to win, and in Nepo's case, he didn't even try. His game with Maksim Chigaev wasn't exactly a barn-burner: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.Be3 Ng4 7.Bc1 Nf6 8.Be3 Ng4 9.Bc1 Nf6 10.Be3 and draw.

That rendered the result of the game between Andrey Esipenko and Fedoseev meaningless with respect to the battle for first many hours before their game wound up drawn (in 73 moves), so all that was left was Karjakin's game with Dubov. And what a game it was! Dubov, whose exceptional creativity in the opening (as elsewhere) has been praised even by Magnus Carlsen, trotted out a very rare line of the Italian against Karjakin, leading to an absolute mess. The line may not be a problem for a computer, but it was more than enough of a problem for the former world championship finalist. Karjakin was soon befuddled, Dubov won a great game, and Nepomniachtchi won the championship. (Dubov-Karjakin, with my annotations, is here.)

Congratulations to Ian Nepomniachtchi, whose victory came against a very strong field, as you'll see from the final standings:

1. Nepomniachtchi 7.5 (out of 11)
2. Karjakin 7
3-4. Fedoseev, Dubov 6.5
5-6. Chigaev, Artemiev 6
7-8. Vitiugov, Svidler 5.5
9-10. Esipenko, Matlakov 5
11. Goganov 3.5
12. Antipov 2 (But it was 2/6; he withdrew at that point.)

Aronian Beats Nepomniachtchi, 14-11

(I haven't abandoned the ship; it was just a busy week.) The Speed Chess Championship mushed along with two more matches this week, starting with the battle between Levon Aronian and Ian Nepomniachtchi on Wednesday. Nepo was a slight favorite, slight enough that Aronian's win in a well-contested match wasn't a big surprise.

Nepomniachtchi struck first, with a win in game two, but Aronian won the next two games and maintained the lead for a long time. After 14 games he was up 8-6, but Nepo finally showed some signs of life, winning the next two games. Aronian showed good nerves, however, winning the next game to close out the 3'+1" with a 9-8 lead, and then dominated the early going in the 1'+1" to extend his lead to four games. He was about to up five when he blundered and lost game 23, and after a loss in game 24 it looked like a miracle might happen.

It didn't. Aronian held with Black to win game 25, and did so as time expired, so that did it: a 14-11 victory that was well-deserved. (More on the match here, including video.)

Magnus Carlsen Invitational, Day 2: Caruana Squeaks Past Nepo; MVL Drubs Giri

It was another interesting day with shaky play and surprising results. Fabiano Caruana was probably losing both of his first two games with Ian Nepomniachtchi, but drew both of them. He drew the third game as well, and then won the fourth game from what was at one moment a dodgy position. Meanwhile, Anish Giri lost the first two games to Maxime Vachier-Lagrave - the first one for no sensible reason at all - and the Frenchmen drew the last two games to coast in with a 3-1 victory.

I don't know if total points play a role in a possible tiebreak, but they are otherwise irrelevant to the scoring. Whether a player wins the match 4-0 or 2.5-1.5 - provided he wins without an Armageddon game - he wins the match 3-0. If he needs to win the Armageddon game, then he gets 2 points for the match and his opponent gets a single point. Therefore, after one round Caruana and MVL join Ding Liren (who defeated Alireza Firouzja 2.5-1.5 in their match on Saturday) in the early lead with three points apiece, a point ahead of Magnus Carlsen who needed the extra game to dispatch Hikaru Nakamura. In their regular games, White won every time, with Carlsen grinding out endgame victories in the first and third games while Nakamura won with a direct attack in game 2 and by taking advantage of a couple of blunders in game 4. In the Armageddon game, Nakamura had White, but the streak was broken. He overextended in his attempt to attack, and then a blunder in a bad position sealed his fate.

Here are the pairings for round two, with the first two pairings occurring tomorrow and the next two on Tuesday:

• Carlsen (2) - Firouzja (0)
• Nakamura (1) - Giri (0)
• Nepomniachtchi (0) - Vachier-Lagrave (3)
• Ding Liren (3) - Caruana (3)

Carlsen-Firouzja ought to be a lot of fun, as the World Champion seeks revenge for the damage the youngster has been doing to him at faster time controls. Nepo vs. MVL is also interesting, as the Candidates co-leaders square off. Will Nepo achieve a (very, very) small measure of revenge for his defeat in the final round of the first cycle of that event?

Play begins at 10 a.m. ET each day, and can be viewed live on Chess24 and Twitch; probably elsewhere, too. For the games, I'll send you to TWIC's page for the event.

Magnus Carlsen Invitational: The Line-Up

This eight-player online event starts this coming Saturday, April 18, and features a fantastic field starting with the world champion. Magnus Carlsen is playing, as is world #2 (and 2018 challenger) Fabiano Caruana, world #3 Ding Liren, #4 (and Candidates co-leader) Ian Nepomniachtchi, world #5 (and Candidates co-leader) Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, world #10 (and renowned Twitter troll) Anish Giri, world #18 (and blitz legend) Hikaru Nakamura, and world #21 (and 16-year-old super-prodigy) Alireza Firouzja. The event will last 16 days, running through May 3, and has an impressive $250,000 prize fund.

The event has two stages. The first is a round-robin, with each pairing comprising a 4-game rapid match at a 15'+10" time control. The first six rounds will take two days, with two simultaneous matches each day, while all four matches will take place simultaneously on the last day. The scoring is unusual: if a player wins the 4-game match he gets three points, but if it finishes 2-2 they play an Armageddon game, in which case the winner gets two points and the loser one. After that there's a final four knockout, with the first semi on the first day, the second semi on the second, and the final on the third day. If any of those matches reach a 2-2 score, they play a pair of 5'+3" games, and Armageddon after that, if necessary.

The event will take place on Chess24, and I'm sure it will be viewable on YouTube as well.