Topalov got his novelty in today and drummed up a big lead in time. But Anand found the right moves, declined a move repetition, and could have won if he didn't miss Qa4. That should be enough to keep Topalov worried. I'm interested to see your prediction for tomorrow's opening.
why did Anand take a draw and didn't he play for Nd1-e3 with attack on pawn c4, in some cases threaten Nf5 or even Kf2-e2? I don't get it. I can't see how Topalov can keep defending this.
Noe: I thought I addressed it somewhere, but at a quick look I couldn't find it. Anyway, the answer is this: let's say instead of 58.Qd1 Anand played 58.Nd1. Then Black plays 58...Qe1, after which 59.Ne3 is immediately handled by 59...Qxe3.
Anon: That's the optimistic spin for Anand. The pessimistic spin, which has at least as much going for it, is that his opening with White was a failure, Topalov refused several draws, and even when he overpressed Anand blew his chances. That's why I hope for Anand's sake that he doesn't find out about his missed opportunities.
I have a question: Is there conclusive evidence that 42.Qa4 (which Anand missed) was actually winning? On the other hand, I am glad we are watching a World Championship Match with a high level and plenty of action.
ChessVibes quotes another 42.Qa4 line by Shipov: 42...Qd5+ 43.Kf1 Qe6 44.Qa2! I'm beginning to believe this: 44...h5 is met by 45.gxh5+ Kxh5 46.Qa8! regaining control of the same key squares used in the line Dennis quotes. Indeed on backtracking from all these lines, I get evals well over +1.0 on a single-core version of the Toga II engine (a private version optimized for depth). Not definitively a win, but definitely "trouble" for Black.
Ironically this gives me a higher opinion of Topalov's adherence to the "no draw offer" rule, since he showed thereby that he could have something to lose by it. Since he had some easier draws before Move 35 (as Shipov even notes), it is plausible that had he offered a draw at move 30, say, it would have been accepted.
Regarding 42. Qa4 being winning in the end: GM Shipov claims it's a draw in the end: 42. Qa4 Qd5 43. Kf1 Qe6 44. Qa2 Kg7!! and here, despite computer's evaluation, there is no win. If 45. Nxd3, then Qf6, Qxc3 and eventual h5 is a draw. And if 45. Qd2, then Kf6!!=
What the players take away from this game will depend on what their expectations were before and during the game. If Topalov expected his preparation in this game to be one of his main weapons, then the draw is a bad result for him regardless of the spin. I think Anand would have (or at least should have) expected Topalov to come up with something like this sooner or later. May be Anand was waiting for a game like this to finally switch openings with white. Do you think Anand will make a major change in the opening in game 9?
Yes, I see at ChessNinja.com a comment from "mishanp" here referring to Shipov's video. This looks correct, and the reason why it must be 44...Kg7!! and not 44...Kf7 is that the latter meets 45.Qa8! since 45...Qe2+ 46.Kg7 d2 loses to 47.Qf3+.
Andrey, assuming Shipov's analysis of 42.Qa4 is correct, and I have no reason to assume at this point that it isn't, it shows that Anand wasn't winning there. It seemed to me that there were two places where White had good chances for a win, though, and at least looking at the annotations on that video it seems he agrees with me about 39.Qa2. My coverage of that move was quick and impressionistic, but his main line there ends with a decisive advantage for White. Does he say something to suggest otherwise in his verbal commentary?
Reader Comments (13)
Topalov got his novelty in today and drummed up a big lead in time. But Anand found the right moves, declined a move repetition, and could have won if he didn't miss Qa4. That should be enough to keep Topalov worried. I'm interested to see your prediction for tomorrow's opening.
why did Anand take a draw and didn't he play for Nd1-e3 with attack on pawn c4, in some cases threaten Nf5 or even Kf2-e2? I don't get it. I can't see how Topalov can keep defending this.
Noe: I thought I addressed it somewhere, but at a quick look I couldn't find it. Anyway, the answer is this: let's say instead of 58.Qd1 Anand played 58.Nd1. Then Black plays 58...Qe1, after which 59.Ne3 is immediately handled by 59...Qxe3.
Anon: That's the optimistic spin for Anand. The pessimistic spin, which has at least as much going for it, is that his opening with White was a failure, Topalov refused several draws, and even when he overpressed Anand blew his chances. That's why I hope for Anand's sake that he doesn't find out about his missed opportunities.
I have a question: Is there conclusive evidence that 42.Qa4 (which Anand missed) was actually winning? On the other hand, I am glad we are watching a World Championship Match with a high level and plenty of action.
ChessVibes quotes another 42.Qa4 line by Shipov: 42...Qd5+ 43.Kf1 Qe6 44.Qa2! I'm beginning to believe this: 44...h5 is met by 45.gxh5+ Kxh5 46.Qa8! regaining control of the same key squares used in the line Dennis quotes. Indeed on backtracking from all these lines, I get evals well over +1.0 on a single-core version of the Toga II engine (a private version optimized for depth). Not definitively a win, but definitely "trouble" for Black.
Ironically this gives me a higher opinion of Topalov's adherence to the "no draw offer" rule, since he showed thereby that he could have something to lose by it. Since he had some easier draws before Move 35 (as Shipov even notes), it is plausible that had he offered a draw at move 30, say, it would have been accepted.
Regarding 42. Qa4 being winning in the end: GM Shipov claims it's a draw in the end: 42. Qa4 Qd5 43. Kf1 Qe6 44. Qa2 Kg7!! and here, despite computer's evaluation, there is no win. If 45. Nxd3, then Qf6, Qxc3 and eventual h5 is a draw. And if 45. Qd2, then Kf6!!=
I agree - what I posted was the optimistic spin.
What the players take away from this game will depend on what their expectations were before and during the game. If Topalov expected his preparation in this game to be one of his main weapons, then the draw is a bad result for him regardless of the spin. I think Anand would have (or at least should have) expected Topalov to come up with something like this sooner or later. May be Anand was waiting for a game like this to finally switch openings with white. Do you think Anand will make a major change in the opening in game 9?
So, if the above analysis is correct, at no point Anand was winning.
Hi Andrey---are you referring to Shipov's video? Is this update to his analysis somewhere in print on his site?
Yes, I see at ChessNinja.com a comment from "mishanp" here referring to Shipov's video. This looks correct, and the reason why it must be 44...Kg7!! and not 44...Kf7 is that the latter meets 45.Qa8! since 45...Qe2+ 46.Kg7 d2 loses to 47.Qf3+.
Andrey, assuming Shipov's analysis of 42.Qa4 is correct, and I have no reason to assume at this point that it isn't, it shows that Anand wasn't winning there. It seemed to me that there were two places where White had good chances for a win, though, and at least looking at the annotations on that video it seems he agrees with me about 39.Qa2. My coverage of that move was quick and impressionistic, but his main line there ends with a decisive advantage for White. Does he say something to suggest otherwise in his verbal commentary?
According to Kasparov Anand missed a possible win when he played Nd2 instead of 25. Qh3. (Chessbase)
Dennis, about that 39. Qa2 line he says that Black would have big problems defending, but does not say it's an outright win.