Monday
Sep202010
Olympiad Predictions?
Monday, September 20, 2010 at 9:57PM
Who do you think will win? Remember, not who do you hope will win, but who do you believe will actually do it? Russia has the top-rated team, but Armenian squads have long been renowned for their great team chemistry, and they have won the last two Olympiads.
Reader Comments (11)
I don't think Armenia will win this year. They have only one 2700+ player and most the other board 1s are talent heavy. They rely on the entire first team normally and hardly play their 5th player at all. Fatigue would be a factor for sure especially in Siberia. Russia 1 looks awfully strong and I think they will win. Grischuk is performing extremely well off late and look for Svidler and Karjakin to despatch the lesser mortals on boards 3 and 4. Ukraine would be the 2nd favourites with Ivanchuk, Ponomariov and Eljanov in there. Hungary looks strong also with Leko and Almasi both 2700+ players and Polgar an ex-member of that group. I don't think Hungary has ever had this lineup before, I might be wrong though. China and Azerbaijan should contend but Wang Hao's performance recently shows the disparity between the strong and the super strong; Gashimov's controversial omission is an obvious cause for concern for Azerbaijan.
Russia 2 !
I think it will be Russia in the end - they cannot always underperform as in the last two Olympiads. It depends on whether the home advantage(?) will be blessing (extra motivation) rather than curse (extra pressure).
But my money would be on Ukraine, basically because one probably cannot win much betting on Russia. Here the ifs and buts are:
- Can Ponomariov keep his form from Dortmund?
- Can Eljanov leave his bad result from the Croatian team championship (losing 20 Elo points) behind?
- Which Ivanchuk will show up, the 2800 Jekyll or the sub-2600 Hyde??
Russia 1 will win. DM, it's in my 5th sentence.
[DM: Oops, my bad. By the way, Armenia always has but one permanent 2700 - sometimes Akopian is a little bit over, sometimes (as now, at 2691) a little bit under. But it's fundamentally the same team that won last time.]
Russia, is gonna crush-ya.
Russia I look very strong though maybe Ireland can get something today...
[DM: At least Sam Collins got a draw! Too bad Baburin decided not to play. It might not have made much difference in this match, but it's hard to believe it wouldn't have made a big difference overall.]
Leko will finally hit some form at last (I gave him some advice on how to come out from bad form), and Hungary will be the surprize winners.
You watch :)
And for the upset of the first round...
(TPE) Lin Chieh-Sheng Jason 1736 - (TUR) GM Can Emre 2500 1 - 0
Iran
Bolivia!
"At least Sam Collins got a draw! Too bad Baburin decided not to play. It might not have made much difference in this match, but it's hard to believe it wouldn't have made a big difference overall."
Great to see Sam drawing with the world number 7, he's been playing very well recently.