The Candidates Matches Start Next Thursday
Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 12:02PM They're almost here - less than a week away! Eight players will face off in a series of knockout matches in Kazan, Russia for the right to face world champion Viswanathan Anand for the title in early 2012. As there are eight players, there will be three rounds of matches: four-game quarter-finals, four-game semi-finals, and a six game final. Here's the "bracketology" (to borrow a neologism from US sports) - the winner of the first match plays the winner of the second, and so on:
- (1) Veselin Topalov (BUL, 2775)
- (8) Gata Kamsky (USA, 2732)
- (4) Boris Gelfand (ISR, 2733)
- (5) Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (AZE, 2772)
- (3) Levon Aronian (ARM, 2808)
- (6) Alexander Grischuk (RUS, 2747)
- (2) Vladimir Kramnik (RUS, 2785)
- (7) Teimour Radjabov (AZE, 2744)
As you can see, seedings have little to do with current ratings, so don't base your predictions on pairing numbers! Let's offer a little information about these pairings:
Topalov - Kamsky: You may recall that they played a short Candidates final a couple of years ago. Topalov qualified as the loser of the match with Kramnik, while Kamsky won the preceding World Cup. Topalov won the match 4.5-2.5, but it was in fact very close: Topalov won the last game, but was losing at one point, in which case the scores would have been equalized. Oddly, Kamsky seemed to have the better preparation in that match, while Topalov did a better job controlling his nerves, both factors going against type.
Overall, Topalov has a big plus: 7 wins against 1 loss, with 7 draws in their classical battles, not counting a blindfold win for Topalov and a rapid win for Kamsky from Monaco in 2009. Ratings and history suggest that Topalov is the favorite, but Topalov has not played especially well since 2009 while Kamsky had a very good 2010 and just won the US Championship (even hiding his prep). Still, I think Topalov must be the favorite here.
Gelfand - Mamedyarov: Seven of their first nine games were drawn, but since then they've gone at each other like cats and dogs with an incredible 13 of their last 14 games having a decisive result. In classical games, Gelfand has five wins to just one loss, with six draws; in rapid it's 1-0 for Gelfand to 1-0 for Mamedyarov in blindfold. Finally, in blitz, it's +4 -3 =2 in Mamedyarov's favor. As these Candidates matches may come down to rapid and then blitz tiebreaks, these stats may be relevant!
Picking a winner here is tough. Mamedyarov is younger and higher-rated, but Gelfand just keeps marching on, prepares extremely well, is a great fighter in events of this nature and has very good nerves. Gelfand has been in these battles many times before, and has consistently risen to the occasion, while this is new territory for Mamedyarov. I'll go with experience here and pick Gelfand.
Aronian - Grischuk: On paper this looks pretty easy to predict, with a sizable rating gap for Aronian, who keeps going up and up and up while Grischuk alternates excellent results with fair ones and time at the poker table. Still, Grischuk is tremendously talented too and seems to have been working pretty hard on his chess the last year or so.
In classical chess, Aronian leads their series pretty convincingly, +6 -2 =9. This includes a victory in their last classical game, played earlier this year in Wijk aan Zee. In blindfold, they're 1-1-1, and likewise in rapid. (Grischuk won the last game they played, a rapid in the final Amber tournament in March.) Finally, in blitz, Aronian leads by one: +2 -1 =4.
Anything's possible, but I can't see any good reason to pick against Aronian here.
Kramnik - Radjabov: Kramnik has everything on his side but youth and their last blitz game: rating, experience, superior preparation (to go by the past, anyway) and a plus score in their head-to-head battles. It's not quite as bad as it might at first seem, because while Kramnik is +2 =7 against Rajdabov in classical chess, he hasn't beaten him in a classical game in 8 years. In blindfold Kramnik leads 2-0, in rapid they drew their first four games before Kramnik beat him in the President's Cup last year, and in blitz they each won their white game in the last December's World Blitz Championship.
As with the Aronian match, anything is possible, but I can't see any good reason to go against Kramnik here.
I'll look more carefully at the semis once the quarter-finals end, but just to fill out the bracket now for the sake of making false predictions, I'll go for Topalov to beat Gelfand, Aronian to beat Kramnik, and in the finals Aronian will beat Topalov.
Your turn!
Reader Comments (13)
My picks..
Round one winners: Kamsky, Gelfand, Aronian, Kramnik.
Semi winners: Gelfand, Aronian.
Final winner: Aronian.
My picks:
Topalov - Kamsky: Kamsky. Like Kramnik, he's the toughest type of opponent for an all-out guy like Topalov, with his incredible solidity and defensive prowess. I couldn't help feeling that he was constantly spoiling good positions in their previous match due to his weak nerves. Hopefully he's fixed that by now. On the board he can beat Topalov, so if Danailov doesn't poison his food I'm picking him.
Gelfand - Mamedyarov: 50/50, but since someone has to win, I'm picking Mamedyarov on a hunch.
Aronian - Grischuk: Aronian. Grischuk's incredible talent aside, all is in Aronian's favour -- he's way more consistent, has less distractions and is definitely in-form. And since I can't see how Aronian is less talented, we have a draw talent-wise and a win for Aronian in all other categories.
Kramnik - Radjabov: Kramnik. He seems to have worked really hard recently and doesn't hide his ambitions. Plus, he's more in shape, Radjabov not having played a serious top-level tournament since Bazna in June last year (the Olympiad doesn't count, his opponents, while still super-strong, were not the absolute elite).
For the semifinals:
Kamsky - Mamedyarov: Kamsky, on experience. He's been there before and that will count. (Oddly enough, if I had picked Gelfand in the quarters, I'd have sided with him against Kamsky too.)
Aronian - Kramnik: the should-have-been final. 50/50, I'll go with Kramnik -- his solidity seems to disarm Aronian's imagination more often than not.
In the final, Kamsky loses -- to Kramnik in my scenario, or to Aronian if the other 50 proves greater than the first 50.
(wishful thinking) ... Kamsky beats Mamedyarov
Aronian beats Kramnik
Then Aronian beats Kamsky
I agree with your predictions, and also with your approach that head-to-head results are at least as relevant as (current) rating. But I would put a bit more emphasis on recent games (recognizing that you factor this in to some extent). My compromise (to keep enough games for meaningful statistics) was since and including 2008, which gives the following figures for classical games:
Topalov-Kamsky +3=3-1 (their previous match which, as you pointed out, could have ended differently. Topalov's three wins in 2006 right after Kamsky's comeback are less relevant, so is one victory back in 1996)
Gelfand-Mamedyarov +4=1-1 (but white won in their four latest games, three times Gelfand sitting on that side of the table. Most relevant may be their latest game: last round of Tal Memorial, drastical loss for Mamedyarov which cost him sole first place in the event).
Aronian-Grischuk +3=6-2 (no longer that "pretty convincingly" - but still favoring the favorite)
Kramnik-Radjabov =1 (that's it, Corus 2008. The fact that Kramnik couldn't win a classical game in eight years is less surprising taking into account that they played just four games over that period, the other ones being Corus 2007 and 2* Linares 2004).
Of course all this would be even more relevant if Carlsen took part in the candidates event - one cannot really include games he played at the age of 15 or 16!?
Based on recent performance, i'd say Aronian will win this tournament. Of course, If Carlsen were playing i'd say he' d be the favorite.
Topalov, Kramnik, Anand, Kamsky, and Gelfand are all in the twilight of their careers. It should be an easy win for Aronian.
Grischuk has spotty play and Radjabov seems to have peaked already. He may have something new, we will see.
Never heard of Mamedyarov before.
Q/F Kamsky bt Topalov, Mamedyarov bt Gelfand, Aronian bt. Grischuk, Radjabov bt. Kramnik
S/F Mamdarov bt Kamsky Araonian bt Radjabov
Finals Aronian bt. Mamdarov
Prediction based on CATSCAN. (My cat picked it like Paul the Octopus)
Anyway I would like to see Anand Vs Aronian for Championship and......... of course an Anand WIN.
In the first round I'm pickinig Kamsky, Mamedyarov, Aronian and Kramnik. I largely agree with Kajetan's first round analysis above. (I won't be shocked by a Topalov or Radjabov win in their matches, though. Topalov Kamsky SHOULD actually favor Topalov, I just think he's been shaky lately. And it's about time for Radjabov to surprise everyone and remind us all of his talent again. Still picking against them both.)
In the second round I'm picking Mamedyarov and Aronian. I fell that they're both on the rise (hard to believe in Aronian's case, given his lofty record & rating) and age will start to tell against the other two.
In the final I expect Aronian's overall superiority will lead to an easy victory for him.
All that said, I'm actually pulling for Kramnik, Aronian and Kamsky, in that order. I just hope the games are good, and remain the primary focus over the coming days.
Round1,
Kamsky
Gelfand
Aronian
Kramnik
Round2
Kamsky
Aronian
Round3
Aronian
I agree with you Dennis on all your picks!
Just for the bizarre historic resonance - Kamsky goes through. think of the match then, 18 years after their first clash - Anand vs Kamsky :)
[DM: I can understand your special interest in a possible rubber match against Anand, but from Kamsky's point of view there are up to three rematches available to him in this cycle: Topalov (guaranteed), Kramnik (possible; in 1994 Kamsky beat him decisively in the PCA cycle) and Anand (guaranteed if Kamsky gets that far; they played twice in the mid-90s with Kamsky winning the first match and Anand getting revenge in the rematch).]
Go Kamsky.
I'm thinking there's got to be some upsets. I'm picking one of the Azerbaijanis to make it to the final. Too many picking Aronian to make it all the way. Grischuk is very strong when he is well prepared and Aronian likes to ride his luck a little bit. I'm thinking his luck will run out here.
Hi Dennis,
I agree with all your first round picks, and would not be a bit surprised to see Aronian take it all.
But four games? And a measly six game final? It's just slightly better than the old FIDE KO. Sigh, I long for the days when the Candidates were 10 games, and the players had a chance to recover from an early loss.
Enough griping, GO KAMSKY!
Best,
-Marc-
[DM: Ten games? You're a youngster. I remember 16- to 24-game Candidates' matches! It doesn't seem like just yesterday, but we're not talking the Steinitz or even the Botvinnik era, either.]