Live Top List
For several months the site wasn't updated, but now that it has been - and there have been some major events worthy of note - it's time to have another look.
Anand and Carlsen are still #s 1 and 2; they've been idle and the only player who could have caught them, Aronian, lost a few points in the Candidates. Ivanchuk and Kramnik are tied for 4th-5th (Ivanchuk "wins" on tiebreaks - the player with the most games in the most recent period is listed first) while Nakamura has moved up to #6. Gelfand is the biggest gainer in the top 30, thanks to his performance in the Candidates, but that still leaves him "only" #13 in the world. (Poor him!)
Some age stats: There are 40 players over 2700 at the moment, of whom 5 are over 40, 9 are in their 30s, 25 are in their 20s and just one - Caruana - is a teenager. (I'm making the simplifying assumption, which may well be incorrect, that those born in 19x1 have already had their birthday this year.) This might seem to indicate that the ideal age for a chess player in his 20s, but that doesn't automatically follow; for one thing, the number of FIDE-rated players has increased rapidly in the last 20 years, so one would expect an increasing number of 2700s in any case. It may also be that environmental factors (e.g. tools like ChessBase, internet play, access to trainers) have made it easier for young players to reach their full potential (or something close enough to it).
So before we draw any strong conclusions, let's see how this list compares to whatever shows up in ten years. My guess is that there will still be around 25 2700s in their 30s (maybe more), while the number of then-20-somethings who are 2700 and up and be much greater...and so on in another 10 years. And if I'm wrong, well, who's going to remember this post 10 years from now??
Reader Comments (5)
There is also a "competing" live rating site www.2700chess.com, which has some different features:
- birth dates of players (indeed, Le Quang Liem is already 20, but Adams will turn 40 only 17th November 2011)
- more interesting in my opinion: a game viewer with all games played by 2700ers since the last rating list - including those who might otherwise be difficult to find and/or escape attention, e.g. the ongoing French team championship (up to 9 relevant games per round).
[DM: Those are nice features - thanks for bringing the site to our attention.]
You'll probably be one who remembers this post, won't you?
On the topic, there's another point that nobody takes in consideration: dropouts!
The average age when an under 2700 rated Chess player goes back to sanity and finds himself a "real work", a work that pays bills I mean, is a factor that might change according to social uses and standards more than in relation with Chess evolution itself.
So, for those of us who cannot really see what future evolution this globally chaotic and locally variegated society will have (and we're quite a lot), it's usually enough to wait and see, I guess...
[DM: ? Anyway, let's please stay on or at least near the topic.]
Also those environment factors you've mentioned as well as modern fitness&sport training means that older players, as long as they have the motivation, can continue to compete effectively. This I think is the real surprise.
[DM: Anand and Gelfand's chess longevity is the result of modern sports & fitness training? That *would* be a surprise. They are both reported to engage in some sorts of exercise, but it at least doesn't look like either of them are in danger of developing an obsession. My guess is that while the exercise they do must help, the biggest factor is that they continue to work hard at the game, and, as you suggest, remain motivated.]
Maybe not modern sports and fitness training, but there are some changes from the past that can help players. I imagine the the number that smoke has decreased significantly. And I'm guessing that Anand in particular probably has a better diet than many players had in the past. (Or than many of us have in the present!)
Also, I expect that in ten years we will be discussing how many players are over 2800, rather than discussing the number over 2700. After all, if 2700 is the new 2600, why won't the new 2700 be 2800?
Icepick raises a good question. If we try to guess the # of 2800s in the Jan 2021 rating list, then people will remember this post 10 years from now!