The FIDE World Cup Starts Sunday
Now this is a majestic event! The 2013 FIDE World Cup starts Sunday in Tromso, Norway, and is a 7-round, 128-player knockout event featuring every player in the top 30 except for Viswanathan Anand, Magnus Carlsen, Veselin Topalov and Ding Liren. (The first three aren't playing because they've already punched their tickets to the next Candidates event or better; the latter, I know not why.) The top two finishers are guaranteed spots into the 2014 Candidates, and although Levon Aronian and Vladimir Kramnik are probably going to qualify for that event by rating (available to the two highest-rated players who haven't qualified by other means), FIDE made it a precondition that rating qualifiers would have to play in either the Grand Prix cycle (which Aronian and Kramnik skipped) or the World Cup.
The festivities begin on Sunday at 3 p.m. local time (= 1 p.m. GMT/9 a.m. ET), and you can find a useful pairing chart here. Rounds 1-6 take a maximum of three days. Days 1 and 2 are classical games, with the players switching colors on the second day. If it's tied after two games, day 3 will see rapid and (if necessary) blitz tiebreaks to determine a winner, culminating if necessary in an Armageddon game. In round 7, the final match will be a best-of-four game classical match.
As a service to my countrymen, here are the U.S. participants, along with their seeding, pairing, and both players' ratings:
(6) Hikaru Nakamura (2772) vs. Deysi Cori (2434)
(8) Gata Kamsky (2741) vs. Lou Yiping (2484)
(55) Alexander Onischuk (2667) vs. Eduardo Iturrizaga (2660)
(83) Ray Robson (2623) vs. Andrei Volokitin (2688)
(95) Larry Christiansen (2584) vs. Laurent Fressinet (2708)
(97) Alejandro Ramirez (2588) vs. Evgeny Tomashevsky (2706)
(99) Gregory Kaidanov (2574) vs. Alexander Areshchenko (2709)
(106) Alexander Shabalov (2546) vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (2719)
(112) Conrad Holt (2539) vs. Nikita Vitiugov (2719)
Readers: Any predictions for the whole event? For first-round upsets? For your country's representatives, wherever you're from?
Reader Comments (7)
As far as predictions go:
- Mamedyarov and Ponomariov will play the final and qualify for the candidates event (not entirely sure about that, but Mamedyarov ahowed excellent recent form in both classical and rapid chess, and Ponomariov always did well in KO events).
- Most likely first-round upset: Shirov - Hou Yifan.
- My country's representatives: as far as Germany is concerned, not applicable as no one managed to qualify via rating or European championship (there will always be US participants because the US championship is also a World cup qualifier).
Some additions/corrections to the previous text:
- I guess Ding Liren's _long-term_ Elo average isn't high enough [he entered the top30 only recently] and he also didn't qualify (maybe didn't try to?) via an official qualifying event.
- Aronian's and Kramnik's rating spots for the candidates event are now guaranteed (relevant official lists were 8/2012-7/2013); the only way to avoid a rating spot is if one or both reach the final of the World Cup - which then takes priority, and next ones in line by rating would be Karjakin and Radjabov.
From UK so hoping for good performance from Michael Adams but if I had to bet Grischuk has the mixture of stability and good quick play skills. Some of the other contenders such as Ivanchuk , Caruana and Nakamura are perhaps slightly more 'accident prone'. I must admit I love this format! From a US perspective I would expect a good performance from Kamsky despite recent poor form.
Best wishes
Mike Twyble
Mamedyarov is in good form I think so could be a good bet, along with Aronian. As a Brit it's a shame David Howell isn't there as he's just surpassed Gawain Jones at the British Championships by winning with a 9.5/11 score (Jones got 8/11).
Great post, and very helpful as have all the recent others. Thank you Dennis. You are always on my never fail to read for chess on the web. You have what others do not.
One tiny correction, and it is a small one, my carefull side by side check indicates that twenty-five of the 'top thirty' are there, so while in essence 'they all are there' is very substantially true, we are also missing Wang Yue (23), in addition to Ding Liren (26). In the latter case, a loss to the tournament. The prior, papa bear aka Petrosianesque, the latter a total wild man, evaluating king safety and space advantage as of higher value :). Carlsen, Anand, Topolov of course make for the five missing.
Of the top 48 making the full compliment from Live Chess Ratings, also figured as missing are Naiditsch (34), Harikrishna (37), Almasi (39), and Van Wely (46).
On their end--the tournament--they show 39 players from Aaronian (1) to Moiseenko (39) in The Chess World Cup 2013 seedings, making it all but nine of the LCR top 48 players, as calculated >= 2700 reported today.
39 out of 48 is like, what, a category XXXII? [DM: Only if it was a round-robin with no one else playing. One suspects that they might have difficulties with a 47-round event though. That would be extreme chess!] Makes great competition a certainty, with greatness at the end. Someone said, I think it was, at ChessVibes that the way it is set up, as plainly obvious as it was, means that you can never loose more than one game in a row. De facto, this means, those who go far, for example, to the quarter finals in two weeks or so, will play winners of winners of winners, that is to say, everyone is in a good state, of great confidence. The Superbowl of chess. The NCAA of chess. Who am I to tell you of all persons, who so loves having his college sports team in the mix!
Whatever it is, thats a lot of firepower, thats for darn sure.
I woke today totally excited about seeing the scores in Tromso, of course, not today! Every day I kept hoping, dugh, tomorrow.
In addition to the hegonomy of the nifty fifty, 62 of the top 100 are there. That is as we say in English, packed.
I bet on Aaronian, Ponomariov, Mamedyarov, Caruana, and Grischuk. [DM: You only get to bet on two people, as only two qualify for the Candidates.] I do not bet on the top two Americans Naka or Kamsky, like but do not bet on Borris this time but only on intuitiion, and do not bet on Kramnik, this time either. I cannot bet on Morozevich or Ivanchuk, but thats an easy one, like shooting fish in a barrel.
I give shots to Vachier-Lagrave and Nepomniachtchi among the just off the top tier. I suspect the latter does push ups near Magnus, so probably not a total duffer.
For me, it is Aaronian and Ponomariov, the latters stability and experience.
Gischuk sometimes fails to do his best. Caruana can have little moments, but hope for him.
If it must be one, I have to bet on Nakamura over Kamsky. I find it hard not to make Mamdyarov my third pick, but maybe Fabiano!
I wonder why Rustam Kasimdzhanov is not playing.
Unfortunately, many of the Americans are outnumbered by well over one hundred rating points, which will make it more difficult for them to advance, though we can hope for some upsets there.
[DM: Most of the Americans will probably gain experience, which, as a wise person once said, is what you get when you don't get what you want.]
Wow, Larry Christiansen playing! Interesting! I only ever see him at the USATE, normally.