The Candidates' Wildcard is...Levon Aronian
Which seems bizarre at first blush, since the Candidates' tournament is going to be in Moscow. But the reason it's Levon Aronian and not the higher-rated Vladimir Kramnik is the sponsor, the Tashir Group. It is a Russian-Armenian real estate company headed by an Armenian-born billionaire, so there you go.
Aronian would normally be a great choice for a wildcard spot, and even now he's a very good choice. But for about a year and a half, almost two years, I think, he has had only one really top-class result - his recent win in the Sinquefield Cup. Even so, he's still #8 in the world and a worthy Candidate. As for big Vlad, he'll have to wait until the next cycle for a chance to regain the World Championship title - unless Giri loses a ton of points in the upcoming European Team Championship (starting in about a week).
So here's what the field looks like for the Candidates' (which will go from March 10-30 next year), barring Giri's total collapse:
- Viswanathan Anand (qualified by being in the last World Championship match)
- Veselin Topalov (by rating)
- Anish Giri (by rating)
- Hikaru Nakamura (Grand Prix)
- Fabiano Caruana (Grand Prix)
- Sergey Karjakin (World Cup)
- Peter Svidler (World Cup)
- Levon Aronian (sponsor's wildcard)
Is it too soon to make pointless predictions? Let's do it! I'll start by claiming that Hikaru Nakamura will win and face his nemesis for the championship.
Reader Comments (18)
This should be an exciting tournament! With the exception of Giri, everyone on this list is capable of playing extreme, fighting chess.
[DM: C'mon, Giri has played at least one interesting game in his career - his 20-move win over Carlsen!]
And a Nakamura-Carlsen WC match would be the most exciting thing to happen in chess in a very long time. Go Naka!
I will join the bandwagon and go with Nakamura as well. His style and determination are showing he wants it bad. Second will be Topalov as the older guys seem to be making a comeback. If Kramnik was playing I would have picked him as second.
I was hoping for Vlad as the wild card, and I think by most "objective" criteria he's the most qualified, but Aronian is a great player and hopefully he'll have his top form for this. It's a great field, and all the players have won top tournaments before so it seems that anyone could win this. I'll pick Nakamura as well, mostly because I think it would make for a fun WC match. Really I don't think anyone is a strong favorite, and I don't think anyone is a huge underdog.
If I can't have Kramnik, I'll put my hopes in Svidler. (Let me dream, please. He's such a great guy!)
But if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Vishy, who has shown that he can surprise us all - if you consider one further jewel in his crown a surprise.
Anish Giri will qualify after all games by all competitors are drawn, and they get to the 37th tie-breaker: best trash talk.
The Giri-bashing here and elsewhere gets tiresome to me. His style is what it is, but for example his World Cup wins against Leko and Vachier-Lagrave would be considered interesting, memorable, brilliant ... if played by Carlsen.
[DM: Lots of people find lots of other people and/or their comments tiresome. C'est la vie. You can't please everyone and there's no accounting for tastes. Btw, appealing to Carlsen is a bit strange, as his games are likewise rarely viewed as "brilliant". He is a fantastic player (as is Giri), but his modus operandi isn't the brilliant win but the technical masterpiece. Reducing any great player to a stereotype is of course an exaggeration, but lighten up. Besides, if Giri can become world champion by being boring, then who cares? I'd take Tigran V. Petrosian's career over Frank Marshall's any day.]
If +2 turns out to be enough to win the candidates, Giri's chances are as good as anyone else's. He might have the best chances of all to remain unbeaten - like it or not, this also matters. But I will "go wild" and propose Karjakin - maybe I was the only one (commenting here) to predict that he will reach the World Cup final .... .
Tough field. Giri and Anand likely will get a lot of draws, but my guess, just based on how everyone is playing recently, is it will either be Karjakin or Naka. (Karjakin has been up and down, but he's super tenacious, and fights hard in worse positions)
[DM: They all fight hard in worse positions; it's part of what makes the 2800s 2800s.]
During the Stavangen tournament, Topalov was saying how unsure he was about participating in the Candidates. (http://chess-news.ru/en/node/19338)
I suspect that Kramnik as his replacement, convinced him to join.
Every wild card choice is bound to raise discussions, but I think Levon Aronian is a very good addition to this line-up. His performances in the past cycles and his high rating make him a very reasonable choice, and of all the players who were not already qualified, I think he is the one who has the biggest chances to win such an event (an argument could be made for Kramnik but I feel that he now lack the energy to maintain stable results in such a long tournament). So I hope Aronian will make a good showing and justify his selection. As for the predictions, most of the candidates have proved they could win very dense elite events. With what he has shown at the best of his form, I think Caruana can be considered a strong contender, and I would really like to see him face Carlsen.
Candidates tournaments seem to be a test of nerves and most of the contestants this time around seem to underperform on the biggest stage. For that reason, I'll go with Vishy, Topalov and based on his multiple recent World Cup escapades, Karjakin as well.
[DM: All three will win? Really going out on a limb there....]
I think it is Tashir Group not Tahir.
[DM: Right - thank you. Fixed it.]
It seems absolutely wide open, Would have liked to see Kramnik , he is my favourite player but Aronian's Sinquefield cup win was better than anything from Kramnik recently, I really could not see Kramnik winning the Candidates but any of the 8 likely candidates have a chance. Not convinced that Nakamura vs Carlsen would be exciting more likely a Kasparov vs Short blowout. Caruana would be the best American challenger.
[DM: I think the Nakamura vs. Carlsen score matters more than Alekhine's and Fischer's scores against Capablanca and Spassky, respectively, but not by much. (Both Alekhine and Fischer were winless against their world champion opponents prior to their matches, but that didn't stop them from winning.) Carlsen would be a favorite, but it would be wrong to expect anything but a close match.]
Shame big Vlad isn't going to make it. Especially as he's in such great form lately :-(
The thing with Nakamura is this: he may be one of the best players in the world but against Carlsen he is similar to Shirov vs Kasparov. If you remember, at one point Shirov was one of the world's best players, capable of defeating anyone (he crushed Kramnik in their candidates match) but against Kasparov Shirov just couldn't play and thus no one wanted to even sponsor a match and that's why Shirov was kinda robbed of his World Championship match opportunity.
[DM: Sure, I remember the Kasparov-Shirov situation, being the middle-aged guy I am. As I've noted elsewhere, Alekhine and Fischer also came into their matches with Capablanca and Spassky with winless minus scores, but that didn't stop them from beating the then-title holders - convincingly. I don't think Nakamura would be a favorite, but I think their old head-to-head score wouldn't mean very much.
As for Shirov "crushing" Kramnik, that didn't occur. Shirov was up one game going into game 9, which Kramnik was winning. Kramnik went astray in the complications and lost, but that isn't a crush. Kramnik was basically one good move from tying the match.]
The same thing with Nakamura. Against Carlsen he has such a horrible score (something like -14, similar to Shirov's score vs Kasparov) that not many will want to sponsor this.
[DM: It's -11. As for sponsors, this is a different world than that of Kasparov and his fiefdom of one.]
Even if you say "But Nakamura has improved", the psychological factor is still there. Think about it. I think of the current candidates many have a much better chance against Carlsen in a match, even if they are otherwise 'weaker' than Nakamura.
I think it's Aronian's time. He'll catch fire (as he occasionally does) and win the tournament by a full point despite getting nailed by an Anand opening novelty again.
Topalov has been holding back the last couple of tournaments and not showing his best ideas. I like his chances. I'd really like to see Aronian pull it off to pit of one the nicest and funniest guys pitted against what is turning out to be that brat Carlsen.
[DM: I was going to say that Carlsen is cocky rather than a brat and add that practically all top players have a bit of that, but Carlsen's reactions at the world blitz didn't do him any favors, did they?]
Also Karjakin has his chances! He has indicated to be a tough fighter as in World Cup recently. I think that all the players in the Candidates are very good. It can be that the decisive factor will be this: who really wants to win or who is hungry enough. In Finnish we have a saying: "mennä harmaan kiven läpi". That is something like: break the walls down.
[DM: I was going to say that Carlsen is cocky rather than a brat and add that practically all top players have a bit of that, but Carlsen's reactions at the world blitz didn't do him any favors, did they?]
What did I miss? Somebody care to fill in?
[DM: It was featured pretty much everywhere when it happened. Here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-rVb2b4oBA]
Svidler will win.